All Eyes on Rory Heading Into the 2025 Canadian Open

After a few classic Tour venues, the PGA Tour heads to TPC Toronto to take on a new course. It’s the North Course at Osprey Valley and it’s looking to be a long, tough test. Let’s dive in deeper. 

Course Fit

The Canadian Open typically hops from course to course most years with a few repeat venues along the way. For the 2025 Canadian Open it will be TPC Toronto serving as the host. 

Built in 2001, this modern design already received a renovation, with Ian Andrew making the changes in 2023 and 2024. Andrew had this to say about the challenge, “The focus for me is trying to balance out tee-to-green becoming a greater part of what is required for a player to succeed and hopefully win rather than it just becoming a putting contest, I hope the (Tour players) talk a little about what it asks about their longer game.” 

This certainly doesn’t look like a putting contest on paper, as the par 70 stretches out to nearly 7,400 yards. This course is long. There are six par 4s that play over 480 yards. That is some serious length that will require some power, elite long-iron play, and/or elite scrambling. I think length is an advantage this week, but it’s also the type of course that is so long that it brings in more skill profiles into play. 

Off the tee, the fairways are relatively wide, averaging 37 yards, which is wider than Tour average. Playing way up North, it’s bent-poa across the property with bluegrass rough. 

At first glance, this looks like a pure test of driving and around-the-green play. With so many long-iron shots, it’s hard to expect too many fireworks on approach. 

TPC Toronto hosted the season-ending Fortinet Cup last year on the PGA Tour Americas circuit and that event was won with a score of just 5-under by Will Cannon who is shorter than Tour average off the tee. There was a bit of wind over the weekend that week but even in calm conditions the field was averaging over 71 strokes per round. I don’t think that’s purely due to player strength of a lower Tour because the winning scores in the two weeks prior were -24 and -26, so they know how to go low. 

Using our Splits Stats data from the last two seasons, we can zero in on courses with three key traits: long courses, tough scoring, and bent-poa greens. Compared to their counter splits (short courses, easy scoring, Bermuda greens), here are 10 names that stand out the most:

• Danny Willett
• Davis Riley
• Matt McCarty
• Corey Conners
• Rory McIlroy
• Max Homa
• Kristoffer Ventura
• Alejandro Tosti
• Lee Hodges
• Jake Knapp

Most of these guys really love to hit driver as much as possible. It makes sense they would thrive on longer courses that often force you into hitting the big stick. 

Head over to the FTN PGA Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Rory McIlroy is the deserving favorite but not in a price range I like to target for outrights. Pendrith has as much course knowledge here as anyone in the field, so could he be worth a nibble at 28/1? Let’s see who my first three clicks are going to be. 

Free Golf Bets for the 2025 Canadian Open

Corey Conners Top 20 Finish (+105)

Looking to be a pure ball-striking test this week, I love backing the Canadian Conners, who is gaining 1.70 strokes tee-to-green per round over the last three months, second only to Rory (+1.78). 

The splits are calling his name too, as he’s much better on long, tough courses and outperforms his baseline on bent-poa greens, as well. 

The odds suggest this is a coin flip, but my sims suggest is closer to having a three-sided die, with two of the sides having Conners name on them. 

Corey Conners to Win (18-1, one-fourth each way for 5 places)

He’s finished sixth in two of the last three Canadian Opens and was T2 at the midpoint of the other one. This is an event he circles on his calendar every year. Of course, that doesn’t mean he’ll play any better but it’s good to know we get his 120% effort on these weeks. 

Currently top five off-the-tee and approach over the last three months, I want to lean on his stellar form in his home open. His combination of course fit and recent form probably makes this one of the best chances he has to hoist the hardware in Canada. 

Matt McCarty Top 20 Finish (+375)

Now for a bit of a longer shot, McCarty won in the fall at Black Desert, a course with extremely wide driving lanes. The TPC Toronto corridors are fairly wide, as well. 

He also sports extreme, very extreme splits, in favor of bent or bent-poa turf. His Black Desert win came on bent and all three of his KFT wins last year came on bent or poa. 

He ranks 21st in tee-to-green play over the last three months while also yielding an above-average putter. Good all-around game for the lefty makes him a great value here. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays throughout the week from Alex Blickle and me. I already have a fourth play that I will load in there now.