Getting started in PGA DFS: What to look for, how to do it

With PGA one of the first major sports back, breaking down some of the basics to golf DFS was one of our priorities at the new site (and welcome!). So below is a breakdown of some of the basics for those who may be looking to get into it for the first time or to add a refresher to those who have been playing for a while.

Basics and my process

PGA DFS is a whole different beast than sports like MLB, NFL and NBA for a very obvious reason: These are individual golfers going against an entire field, with only one outright winner on each slate. One main goal in PGA DFS is to have all six of your golfers make the cut (there are no-cut events, but most have cuts after Friday’s round). The structure of most PGA tournaments is four days, with each golfer who makes the cut completing a round of golf each day. The cut typically comes after the second day, but there are some tournaments with no cuts or even a cut after the third day.

While it is different in many ways, golf is similar to other sports in terms of targeting high-upside players. For example, some players produce a large number of bogeys and birdies, while others hover more around par. Their final golf scores might be similar, but DFS scoring values birdies (+3 for a birdie, +0.5 for par, -0.5 for bogey), so the higher-variance but higher-upside players are better DFS options. This idea makes the stat “Birdie or Better” a pretty valuable one for golf DFS.

Targeting stadiums or arenas (and players who perform well in them) might not be a big strategy in the team sports, but in golf, it makes sense to value course history pretty heavily. A lot of courses on tour will yield higher scores to certain types of players. Here at FTN we plan to break those kinds of player/course combos in extreme depth each and every week, but it’s important to note that course history is valuable in golf, while “field” or “stadium” history is not as useful in other sports.

Just like my NBA DFS breakdown, there are some similarities in golf DFS compared to other DFS sports, primarily the Vegas factor. In fact, there’s an argument for using Vegas even more heavily in golf than any other DFS sport. Finding discrepancies between Vegas odds and DFS price can help locate strong value plays.

Recent form, or the value of a hot streak, is a topic worth debating in golf DFS, just as it is in many sports. Personally, I put stock in recent strength, though that’s less a scientific conclusion than it is a personal preference.

Less up for debate in PGA DFS is the importance of stats and research. Each week, you can evaluate the upcoming field based on how they have been performing recently. “Strokes gained” is crucial; the PGA tracks strokes gained for all sorts of areas, including off the tea, approach, putting, and more. By combining these stats in the form of both long and short term and measuring them against which areas will be important based on the course, you can find a lot of good plays.

Evaluating ownership is important in any DFS sport, and that includes PGA DFS. However, one thing to note is that PGA is not like the NFL, NBA or even pitchers in the MLB, where we frequently see massive chalk on a player or two. For example, Webb Simpson was the chalkiest player on the slate of the RBC Heritage, coming in at 27.9% ownership. In NBA and NFL, meanwhile, players frequently hit 50% ownership or higher. In other words, finding valuable pivots in PGA DFS is often much different than in other sports, because the difference in PGA ownerships by pricing tiers is often closer than in other sports. For that reason, while I always look for leverage plays in any DFS sport, I find myself less likely to move off players in PGA DFS for ownership reasons.

We discussed course history earlier, but separate from that, it’s also important to research and understand the course itself. We will have course breakdowns each week that will provide a ton of value and help with making sure you have the best research for the course each week.

Golf is one of the most analytical sports in DFS, and things rarely remain the same week in and week out. It’s important to narrow down your process. With so much to research, it can be important to nail down what is most important. Keep an eye on FTN for all the key breakdowns.