Final Outrights, Round 1 Matchups and a Missed Cut Parlay for the 2025 Masters

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I typically don’t like making any bets this late in the week, but the Masters is a bit different. For one thing, there are so many options of things we can bet on, and sportsbooks can’t possibly get every single line correct. And hey, some of these are just plain fun, too (but still advantageous!). All of the simulated odds referenced beyond this point can be found in our PGA Betting Model.

(All odds are per DraftKings.)

Outrights

Shane Lowry, 45-1
Keegan Bradley, 90-1

We have Lowry at 4.4% to win, which makes this an incredible number. Without exaggeration, he may be the best iron player in the world so far in 2025. I also love the fact that his lack of distance shouldn’t hurt him here anywhere near as much as it does in U.S. Opens and PGA Championships.

Bradley is at 1.7% to win in our simulations. He does project well, but most of the value here stems from the fact that he has one of our highest volatility estimates. Volatility has a negative connotation to it at times (it’s the opposite of consistent, which is a positive thing in nearly all aspects of life), but in outright betting, we actually want volatility from guys who are underdogs. For example, Michael Kim has a nearly identical expected strokes gained projection as Bradley’s, but Kim is one of the least volatile players on Tour. Consequently, Kim has a win probability of 0.7%, less than half of Bradley’s win odds. 

Round 1 Matchups

Both of my round 1 matchup plays can be viewed more as a bet against the playing partners as it is a bet on the guys listed. 

Russell Henley +160 over Sungjae Im and Brooks Koepka
Patrick Cantlay +110 over Matt Fitzpatrick and Rasmus Hojgaard

Henley has an expected strokes gained per round projection of 1.05, well ahead of Koepka’s 0.31 and Sungjae’s 0.22. Since Koepka is actually favored in this group, there’s clear value on Henley. For the record, I even manually boosted Koepka’s projection as a result of his Major Championship prowess. Importantly, when Koepka hasn’t won, he’s often played quite poorly, even in Majors.

If you look at our projections vs. the market as a whole, you’d struggle to find two guys we’re relatively lower on than Fitzpatrick and Rasmus Hojgaard. Cantlay has a massive advantage in this one, with a 0.86 expected strokes gained per round projection vs -0.45 for Fitzpatrick and -0.88 for Rasmus. There’s no way Cantlay’s odds should have a plus sign at the front.

Missed Cut (Parlay?)

I know, I know, a missed cut parlay doesn’t sound as fun as a made cut parlay. But bear with me here! Books know people want to bet on guys to make the cut, so every single player is juiced towards making the cut. The best edge I could find for a made cut was Nick Taylor, who we have at -180 but you can find at -130. That’s… not great. Especially for the best value available. 

On the other hand, there’s a lot of value among the following missed cut selections (odds in the parentheses are our simulated odds):

Bubba Watson -166 (-320)
Danny Willett -152 (-280)
Matt Fitzpatrick +130 (-150)
Rasmus Hojgaard -108 (-240)
Bryson DeChambeau +360 (+200)

I like these, and if you’re feeling particularly bold, you can easily parlay them. There are more guys we show value on for a missed cut, like Ludvig Aberg. But I want to be really selective here because the more guys we add to the parlay, the more likely we are to run into some negative correlation. This inverse correlation can be most easily seen in the following hypothetical example:

Imagine one of the guys in our parlay is done on Friday at +4. Now imagine that the cut will either be +3 or +4. If it’s +3, we win. If it’s +4, we lose. Now, imagine there’s only one player left on the course who can make a birdie to move the cut from +4 to +3. The last thing we need is for that player to be another guy in our missed cut parlay! Because then, if he does move the cut, he’s making the cut. So be selective instead of chasing massive odds.

Final Thoughts

Along that same line, note one other thing — this article contains a wide variety of bets, all presenting fun sweats throughout the week. But not a single one was forced! Every bet listed is a +EV bet according to our projections and simulations. To me, that’s where the real fun lies — in always searching for an edge.

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