Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
If you're looking for some enticing tournament matchups to bet on, look no futher. These ones all look like they can make you some money at this week's Workday Charity Open:
Shane Lowry +120 vs. Billy Horschel
This hasn’t been the prettiest return to golf for Lowry, but perhaps he can take some small gains away from making the cut at The Travelers Championship the last time we saw him. I do rate Horschel’s recent form above Lowry’s, but not enough for him to be favored like this. Through my simulations, I have it closer to even, and they actually rate out as very similar golfers for me over the long term. Lowry’s woes have mainly been on the putting surface, but his strong iron game should be a small boost at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
Collin Morikawa -105 vs. Justin Rose
This matchup has the potential to be an interesting one, as the media has spoken about how Rose ditched his irons and found his form a few weeks ago. However, he did miss the cut at the Travelers Championship. He also won a lot of tournaments with those irons when he first used them, so I’m not buying that they are the sole reason for some decent play after the restart. Morikawa, on the other hand, has been one of the most consistent golfers on tour, and I think he should be favored a bit more here. His recent—and long-term—form suggest he’ll be better than Rose. Although he’s coming off his worst outing as a professional, I’m not all that worried. In the grand scheme of things, two bad rounds don’t mean much.
Brandt Snedeker -120 vs. Chris Kirk
It might be hard for some of you to stomach backing Snedeker after he missed the cut as a trendy pick last week. But this is more of a play against Kirk. I’m not currently buying a resurgence from him, despite his win on the Korn Ferry Tour and a solid first two rounds in Detroit. He was anything but spectacular on Saturday and Sunday, and my model and I both believe Snedeker is the superior golfer.
