Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
One of the most iconic venues in professional golf is upon us this week at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational! A special event that pays tribute to an absolute legend of the game, and we look forward to this tournament delivering even more fireworks than it has in the years past. DFS Golf is not won by correctly identifying which high-priced golfer will perform well, the money is made in the trenches where we find low-owned value plays that separate our lineups from the rest. Each week, I find seven stories to tell for golfers priced below $7,000 who possess slate-winning upside with cut-making safety. Primarily, these plays are made for large field GPPs where I strive to have over half the group play the weekend and look to have multiple golfers finish inside the top 20.
Here are the results for the Genesis Invitational last week:
- Victor Perez – 52nd
- Rasmus Hojgaard – 67th
- Laurie Canter – 64th
- Cameron Champ – 48th
- Rafael Campos – 3rd
- Bryson Nimmer – 39th
- Zach Smith – MC
Well, the Concession Club was not a fun place for our European Tour values. WGCs continued to build on its reputation of filling the bottom of the leaderboard with international value plays so, unfortunately, we nailed a trio of them. But where we did strike gold was Caribbean Campos! A third-place finish for a $6,800 golfer at 3.2% ownership is an absolute home run. The next few weeks should make for an awesome stretch of golf in Florida and here are our selections for the API.
Erik Van Rooyen, $6,900 – Due to a recent stretch of mediocre golf, EVR finds his way back to the $6ks for the first time since last fall. However, a middling finish at the WGC last week was the first time EVR gained more than a stroke off the tee since early September. The driver will be put to the test again at Bay Hill and the long irons demanded to succeed here was a strong suit for Van Rooyen last year.
Matthew Nesmith, $6,900 – Genuinely surprised to find Nesmith still priced in this range, and he is the strongest value play this week in my opinion. Once again at Genesis, he continued his hot irons, which gives him four consecutive events gaining 3 strokes on approach for the first time in his career. That week was outstanding off the tee for Nesmith and if he is able to carry that into the API, watch out once again.
Bernd Wiesberger, $6,800 – The 42nd ranked golfer in the world stumbles in the $6ks as his European Tour form has not translated into the same consistency on the PGA Tour. But he still has a stretch of five straight made cuts in the US, which includes a fourth-place finish at the RSM. Last week was abysmal from a strokes gained perspective, but a known stretch of starts stateside should provide a sense of relief for the opportunity ahead.
Sebastian Munoz, $6,700 – Seabass finally flashed back his irons last week, and we can hop back on the bandwagon of arguably the most improved golfer from last season. Munoz is streaky, which leads to plenty of Draftkings points, and to get him at this price point on his hopeful return to form is a great buy-low opportunity.
Cameron Champ, $6,600 – The rare three consecutive week stamp for Mr. Champ in our 7 under $7K, as we find another course in which off the tee can really separate you if it is clicking on all cylinders. The real problem, however, is his atrocious putter. He’s now on a five tournament stretch of averaging over 1 stroke lost per round on the greens, but if we believe in positive regression for someone who was an average putter in the past, he could be set up for a sneaky top 20 with how well his ball-striking remains.
Cameron Percy, $6,500 – Without strokes gained statistics in Puerto Rico, you have to do some leg work in order to put all the pieces together of the puzzle. Percy not only led in greens in regulation but was top 5 in driving accuracy, which leads me to believe he would have been close to the top of strokes gained ball striking had there been laser data. After showing up on the top of the leaderboard at Pebble the event prior, Percy is priced very cheap for the sneak stretch of golf he is on.
CT Pan, $6,200 – Out of 12 laser rounds in 2021, Pan has gained more than two strokes in a single round a third of the time. Small sample? Absolutely, but at almost the minimum price, the Bread Man has flashed elite irons in which the opportunity to make a run at the top 20 is absolutely in reach. Although he lacks in his distance off the tee, Pan excelled at the Masters this past fall, so he can contend on beasts of golf courses.
