Prime-Time Props — Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Prop God
Every week a crucial part of success in PGA DFS GPPs will be hitting on lower-owned/lower-salary golfers. Golf is a unique DFS sport in that all the golfers have the same opportunity to score. There are no starters, bench players, role players, 3rd down backs, etc. The golfer who is $6,000 is guaranteed to play at least 36 holes, just like the 11,000 golfers. The goal of this article is to highlight those potential low-owned, low-salary golfers than can carry our lineups to the top.
Below you will find my favorite DFS plays in this Houston Open for less than $7,000 on DraftKings.
Harry Higgs $6,900
Limited and middling course history for Higgs but I’m not concerned about it. Not a strong driver of the golf ball which shouldn’t limit him this week, the wide fairways just need to be found for looks at the green. Once on them, Higgs has proven to be a good putter and that will be the difference this week. I’ll reference it now – there are not many different ways to play these courses so a majority of working up the leaderboard will be through picking up strokes on the green. Makes for a REAL fun week. Don’t hit the ball OB, hit the easy greens and go to work. Higgs is capable of that.
Matthew NeSmith $6,800
I’m aware this goes against my profile of needing to hit putts. Nobody is perfect and down here, sometimes we stomach some trash. The rest of NeSmith’s game should be just fine but the putting is a major liability. If you’re looking to feel better about it, he has gained over two strokes putting in both of his past trips to this event, and finished 14th/15th in those trips. The concern could be ownership because his Carolina roots will get talked about.
Hank Lebioda $6,600
Lebioda had been playing quite poorly before finishing T15 last week in Houston. He had an amazing month of July, ending with a WD for personal reasons and hadn’t cut since until Houston. He did a lot of his work on the greens, which is normal for him but the irons were solid as well. He does a lot of things “well enough” and has the flat stick to be a game-changer. It does feel dirty to be pumping putting this much but you can’t win this tournament without it.
Hudson Swafford $6,600
We find ourselves back on the Swafficer (that’s terrible, right?) on a course that should be more friendly to him than last week, where he finished T35. That comfort hasn’t translated into the best results here in the past but his game is suited for success here…sometimes things just don’t pan out. If he’s missing greens, he will be in trouble but at a course where 75%+ are regularly hit, golfers will be in trouble anyway if they’re missing too many and not getting enough looks at birdie.
Vince Whaley $6,600
He dips in and out of form but has shown consistency when playing well. Whaley is coming off a T15 where he played like he will have to this week – solid ball striking and sinking putts. Putting has been the strongest of his skills early in his career which will be helpful – he will just need the irons to be steady and find the putting surface.
Nick Hardy $6,500
Hardy could be a stretch on the course fit because he can do a lot of gaining with distance that just won’t be there this week, however, he’s good enough overall to pay this price. It was a disappointing finish to a strong KFT season for him but he bounced back with good outings at the Fortinet and Sanderson Farms Championship, before missing the cut in Bermuda. Hardy is more speculative than quantitative this week.
Andrew Putnam $6,400
Putnam’s awful driving plagues him most weeks but the lack of distance should be mitigated and we’ve seen plenty of shorter hitters flourish at this event. For the longest time, he was a one-trick pony, relying heavily on putting but he found his irons in 2021. You can count on the putting with him more than most and the play here is that his irons continue to be strong at a course where he doesn’t start with such a disadvantage before even teeing off.
