Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
It’s Masters week, which means the azaleas are blooming and seasonal allergies are ramping up.
Each April, this marks the beginning of the PGA Tour’s major championship season. It’s the biggest event of the year and major part of that is the sacred sanctuary that hosts the event, Augusta National Golf Club.
The exclusivity of the club may deter some but for others, it only adds the appeal of seeing it once a year on television. There is never a blade of grass out of place and if there is, just wait until the following day and the grounds crew will have that imperfection taken care of.
Let’s dig into the course challenges, and after that, we’ll explore notable betting opportunities.
Course Fit
Augusta National Golf Club is one of the most famous courses in the world. It needs no introduction, but let’s revisit some of the basics.
This is a par 72 that stretches to 7,555 yards. Five of the par 4s play at 460 yards or longer, with three of those eclipsing 490. Length can certainly be advantageous on those holes, but it’s not a requirement.
Distance becomes relevant again when discussing the strategy on the par 5s, which is really where a majority of the scoring will come from this week. There are particular weather or course setup conditions that turn some of the par 5s into three-shotters but on a typical day, this is where having more length off the tee is going to give you a big advantage of attacking the par 5s in two.
A main staple of the course is the speedy, bentgrass greens. This can put an emphasis on lag putting but it also puts more weight on smart approach play. Errant approach shots can get repelled far from the flag, so course management is incredibly important because you want to avoid putting yourself in those tricky up-and-down situations.
One other angle to look at this week is the weather. As of Tuesday morning, it looks like a late start could be in order with morning thunderstorms in the forecast on Thursday. Performance in the wind may prove relevant out of the gate with wind gusts over 30 MPH expected Thursday and Friday. We will want to monitor that forecast over the next 24 hours to see how we should handle things.
So now we know the basics of the course but let’s dig a little deeper. My favorite angle at course fit is looking at split stat performance. What names stand out when looking at the key split stats (bentgrass greens, tough courses, fast green speeds, and windy conditions)? Here are the top 10 in the field when it comes to overall split stat performance compared to their baseline:
Keegan Bradley
Patrick Reed
Tony Finau
Shane Lowry
Ryo Hisatsune
Kurt Kitayama
Jason Day
Max Homa
Austin Eckroat
Jordan Spieth
Max Homa is one of the stranger cases of underperformance in majors and that includes four finishes of T43 or worse (two missed cuts) at Augusta National. His T10 at the 2023 Open Championship was his first top 10 in a major. Could it be the start of some big finishes in big events?
Head over to the splits stats page to see how the entire field stacks up in these categories.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
It’s Scheffler’s world, and we’re all just living in it. But if the soon-to-be new dad doesn’t bring his best stuff this week, then the field is pretty wide open with a dozen or so strong contenders with big winning potential.
Masters Bets
I usually highlight one wager that really pops in this section, but this is Masters week, so here are three that catch my eye.
Russell Henley Top 10 Finish (+400)
The born-and-bred Georgia boy will be making his eighth appearance at the Masters. He’s steadied top-15 finishes in three of his last four tries at Augusta National including a T-4 last year.
Now he arrives with top 10s in six of his last 13 starts, playing some of the best golf of his career. The FTN Model suggests he has the 16th best top 10 odds, but the market odds consensus has him at 26th.
Keegan Bradley Top 20 Finish (+360)
The steady striker got off to a strong start in 2024 but the putter has gone cold in recent weeks.
There is reason to be optimistic though. Over the last two years, his performance on courses with bentgrass greens is roughly half a stroke per round better than his baseline.
He is also fourth best in three-putt avoidance over the last two years, a good sign for his ability to lag putt which is such a crucial skill at Augusta National.
Bradley is 6-for-7 at Augusta National with a trio of top 30s but he’s yet to land inside the top 20. I like his chances of changing that by week’s end, and a +360 price is good value considering his expected top 20 rate based on split stat performance alone would be +203.
Adam Hadwin To Win (200-1 each-way for 8 places)
The Canadian has the perfect string of tournament results for placement betting. He’s been incredibly boom or bust with six finishes of 6th or better in his last 25 starts, but he’s also missed the cut in nine of those events to keep his median baseline stats at a lower level.
We like to lean into this week-to-week variance because his good weeks are good enough to contend against any field. After adjusting for the field, three of his last 10 starts would be good enough to hit the each-way portion of this bet but we are getting a 40-1 payout on that.
Looking at the FTN Model, it has Hadwin pegged as the 34th most likely winner, but the market consensus places him around 60th.
Those are the first three bets that caught my eye this week but Alex has already tossed out a few outrights, as well. Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
