Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Birdies have been flowing on the PGA Tour, with a 40-under combined winning score over the last two weeks. Those circles should continue to show up on scorecards this week as they head to TPC Deere Run for the John Deere Classic.
Seven of the last nine winners at the event have gone for 20-under or better.
Course Fit
TPC Deere Run is the host of this week’s event, the John Deere Classic. It was built in 2000 but features relatively “classical” design elements.
Looking at the scorecard, we see a par 71 that stretches to nearly 7,300 yards, but year after year they end up playing it closer to 7,100 yards because of the Midwest summertime softness. That puts it into short-course territory.
The fairways are wide and with those soft conditions, it leads to a large percentage of approach shots coming from the fairway. Then you look at the approach distances and see a larger than usual percentage of shots come from the 100- to 150-yard range.
Loads of fairway bunkers and long rough are the key defenses of the course but the soft conditions always win out. Historically birdie rates sit around 23% while the field finds bogey or worse on just 14% of the holes.
As for grass splits, we see wall-to-wall bentgrass here, so golfers who grew up in the Midwest or Northern parts of the United States often cite their comfort on the greens at TPC Deere Run.
So now we have four split stats to consider in our course fit analysis. We are referencing short course performance, past results on bentgrass greens, performance on easy courses as well as past results from courses in the Midwest. If we weigh all of those split stats, here are the names who show the biggest increase in performance over their baseline.
- J.J. Spaun
- Robby Shelton
- Matt Kuchar
- Rico Hoey
- Seamus Power
- Patton Kizzire
- S.H. Kim
- Greyson Sigg
- K.H. Lee
- Vince Whaley
Wedge play is the theme that stands out when I first see this list.
Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
While the order of these names could be debated, these are the names you would expect to see when looking at the odds board in this weak field.
Similar to last week, when golfers get their odds pushed up solely due to field strength, I like to look past them. So, who catches my eye then?
John Deere Classic Free Bets
Seamus Power to Win (50-1 each way, 6 spots)
The Irishman popped with a T20 finish at the Travelers. It was the third top 20 in his last seven starts so he’s shown enough hints at a potential return to form.
Power gained in all four strokes gained categories at TPC River Highlands which was the first time he’d pulled that off in over a year.
With top 25s in four of his five trips to the Quad Cities, his spot on the course fit list above if backed up with course history results.
Robby Shelton Top 10 Finish +1600
He doesn’t have the length to keep up on a lot of modern Tour courses, but TPC Deere Run doesn’t demand that distance.
He’s about one standard deviation better than Tour average when it comes to approach play inside of 150 yards and this course will give him plenty of chances to use that skill.
Greyson Sigg Top 20 Finish +350
The Georgia Bulldog is extremely accurate and well-rounded with his irons. Heading to TPC Deere Run that means he’ll stripe a lot of fairways on this wide landing areas and with soft greens he’ll be able to set up more than his fair share of birdie looks.
He’s lost adjusted strokes putting in 11 of his last 14 starts which is why this is a top-20 nibble instead of an outright. If he somehow finds an outlier putting performance, a win or top-five would certainly be in the cards though.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
