Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour playoffs kickoff this week in Memphis as a limited field of 70 golfers ready for TPC Southwind.
Getting a break from last week’s flooding, the pros will just have to deal with hot and humid conditions all week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Let’s take a look at the host venue and then discuss a few bets that pop off the page.
Course Fit
This week’s host course is TPC Southwind. This par 70 plays to 7,243 yards from the tips. The true yardage they set it up to is typically closer to 7,100 yards, though.
Driving it well here is so important as water lurks everywhere. The water combined with tricky bermuda rough, make it so vital to keep it in the fairway. The result is golfers typically play more conservative with less-than-driver on a lot of the tee boxes and then do the heavy lifting from there.
Water isn’t just in play off the tee, though. It comes into play frequently on approach.
As Webb Simpson put it a few years ago, “There are a lot of holes where in the rough you have a decision to make: Are you going to bring on the water and go for the green or are you going to lay up? It’s really hard to lay up from 150 yards.”
Looking at scoring here, we see the field average birdie 20% of the holes while bogeying 17% of them. Of course, with all the water in play, a large amount of those bogeys are actually doubles or worse. Among regular PGA Tour venues, TPC Southwind ranks near the top in double bogey rates, behind only water-heavy venues like PGA National, TPC Sawgrass, Muirfield Village and Bay Hill.
Looking for a course-fit angle, let’s look at historical performance on less-than-driver courses, courses with bermuda greens, and courses with a big penalty for missing the fairway. That may sound familiar if you read last week’s article as this is basically a tougher version of Sedgefield with more water lining the fairways.
If we weigh all of those split stats, here are the names who show the biggest increase in performance over their baseline.
- Jordan Spieth
- Emiliano Grillo
- Keegan Bradley
- Will Zalatoris
- Cam Davis
- Max Greyserman
- Eric Cole
- Justin Rose
- Viktor Hovland
- Tom Kim
Looking at this list, I see golfers that don’t lean on their driver but instead can go lights out with the irons or putter.
Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
I can’t say I find much value at the top of the board this week as the big three are all single digits on the odds board, and rightfully so. If picking any of the big three, I would lean Xander since he’s sort of closed the gap on Scheffler but still getting priced much higher than the World No. 1 gold medalist.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Free Golf Bets
Russell Henley over Cameron Young (-138)
I typically gravitate toward plus-money matchups, but Henley over Young was a large enough gap to catch my eye here.
Looking at recent play, Henley is fifth in baseline strokes gained, while Young ranks 39th over that same stretch. Glancing at the top-three splits, Henley combines to rank seventh in the field while Young is 32nd.
How about course history? Young has finished 31st in both of his visits to TPC Southwind while Henley has top-10s in two of his last four tries.
Viktor Hovland to Win (35-1, one-fourth each-way for 5 spots)
His around-the-green play continues to be a serious concern. He’s lost around-the-green in 13 of his 14 starts this season.
Hovland is still striking it well, though, ranking second in strokes gained off-the-tee in the last three months while ranking 18th in approach.
With TPC Southwind putting an emphasis on diving and mid-iron play, I like the idea of buying low on Hovland this week.
Eric Cole Top 20 Finish (+300)
His game is sitting at a low boil with top-10s in three of his last five starts. Over those five starts, he’s lost strokes in just three of the potential 20 strokes gained data points.
Cole’s top-20 odds imply a 25% chance of hitting but his long-term stats show he’s hit the top-20 threshold in at least 27% in all three of the split stat categories I highlighted at the top of the article.
So, he’s playing well again and gets to take on a course that should suit his game.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
