Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour travels out West for the BMW Championship this week, set to be played at Castle Pines Golf Club just outside of Denver.
This course used to host The International, which was a long-running tournament that utilized the Modified Stableford scoring system. That event ended in 2006, and this will be the first time that we see it since, with some course renovations and course setup changes that we can talk about below.
Course Fit
Castle Pines will set the record this week for longest course to ever host a PGA Tour event, as it tips out at 8,130 yards. I can’t include that gaudy yardage figure without also mentioning the altitude sits between 6,000 and 6,400 yards. Using an adjusted yardage from our very own Alex Blickle who played an event at the same elevation, we know this is roughly similar to a 7,050-yard course at sea level.
I say roughly, because not every shot hit will produce that same 13% boost, especially mishit shots or shorter shots with different flight patterns.
The public’s first instinct when we head to a course with elevation is to research the heck out of past success in altitude. The problem with that is sample sizes. The only regular “altitude” events in the last decade would be the Reno-Tahoe weak field event, the WGC-Mexico event at Chapultepec (4 years), and the Omega Euro Masters at Crans Montana (DP World Tour).
Past champs in Tahoe include Collin Morikawa, Akshay Bhatia and Nick Dunlap. At Chapultepec, Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, and Tommy Fleetwood all posted runner-up finishes. Over in Switzerland, Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick and Alex Noren (x2) have all won in comparable altitude. Will Zalatoris and Patrick Cantlay both won at high elevation on the Korn Ferry Tour. Billy Horschel won just down the road at Cherry Hills. As you can see, we’re already at more than 20% of the field, and I’m likely missing some notable mountain narratives like Wyndham Clark being a Denver native or Adam Scott having a home in the Swiss Alps. Despite the tiny samples of altitude events played, we have a big chunk of winners here which really just tells us that we have a strong field. Don’t put too much emphasis on past success on elevation as it ends up putting unwanted “negative boosts” on golfers without much of a mountain sample size.
So, getting back on track, what do we have at Castle Pines? Judging by the course flyover, the landing areas are rather generous on most holes but there are some water features that golfers need to avoid. The course is tree-lined but not claustrophobic.
The angles I’m most concerned about are the greens speeds and turf type. We have a target stimp of 13 feet this week at Castle Pines and when you combine that with this being a Jack Nicklaus design, you can’t help but go immediately to a Muirfield Village comp from there. As for grass type, we see bent-poa greens, again bringing that Muirfield Village comp back into play.
Looking for a course-fit angle, let’s glance at historical performance on those notable splits (fast greens with bent-poa turf).
Here are the names who show the biggest increase in performance when playing courses with similar splits, relative to their baseline.
- Will Zalatoris
- Max Homa
- Cam Davis
- Si Woo Kim
- Jason Day
- Eric Cole
- Keegan Bradley
- Denny Mccarthy
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Cameron Young
Max Homa stood out as a possible value here, but when you look at (20 round) lead-in form you see he ranks dead-last in the field, by more than a quarter of a stroke per round. This looks like a potential get-right spot but it’s also possible that Homa just needs a breather right now to figure things out.
Despite this incredibly strong field, I’m not seeing a huge emphasis on power when looking at this list. Instead, I see course management stars and golfers that know how to handle risk-reward scenarios.
Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Vegas is implying 38% win equity for Xander and Scottie combined at the top, while the FTN Betting Model has that at 39%. Unlike most weeks, I think Scottie and Xander actually offer some OK value if you want to take that route.
BMW Championship Free Golf Bets
Jason Day Top 10 Finish (+360)
When heading to altitude I tend to gravitate toward course managers with strong short games. With altitude bringing in more variables into the approach shot and club selection equation, golfers tend to have more variance in their missed greens.
With strong course managers like Day, I have more trust that he’ll miss in the right spots and not take on unnecessary risks along the way. The Aussie is 11th in this field in (two year) around-the-green play and fifth in putting. That eclectic short game can lead to spike weeks, so I’ll have a go at this top-10 bet to start things off.
Patrick Cantlay to Win (14-1, one-fifth each-way for 8 spots)
It’s been a relatively quiet season for Cantlay, but he still ranks 8th in the field in baseline performance over the last six months.
He’s landed top-fives in two of his last three starts and now heads to a course that could really suit his style.
If Muirfield Village is the comp course that stands out, then Cantlay deserves a serious look. Cantlay has two wins and three other top-sevens at Jack’s Place.
When looking at historical range of outcomes on similar splits, Cantlay ranks fourth in top-10 rates (50%) which is why I took the extra each-way spots here, expanding it to eight places, as I didn’t have to give up much on the outright part of this bet.
Eric Cole Top 20 Finish (+200)
Cole finished strong last week to bag another top 20. He now has top 20s in four of his last six starts.
Last season we saw him post six top 25s in a nine-event stretch and then twirled top-fives in four of his last five starts in the fall. What I see there is that when his game is clicking, he keeps it rolling for months at a time.
Currently in the midst of one of those hot streaks, I will ride the top-20 train for another week.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
