Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour fall schedule is winding down with just two events left for journeymen to secure their playing status for the 2025 season.
You would think that would result in a strong field with everyone near the bubble having to compete to secure their status. Instead, most of the cards are already finalized which results in at least 15% of this week’s 120-man field being loaded with golfers that have no chance of contending. When I simulated the event, I had 15 golfers show up with a 0% chance of posting a top 10 and nine more names with a top-10 rate under 1%.
With that said, we still have an event to handicap so let’s hop right in to talk about the course and who it might suit.
Course Fit
Port Royal Golf Course is the host venue this week. This RTJ design is run by the government of Bermuda. It previously hosted the Grand Slam of Golf and returned to host this event starting in 2019.
Glancing at the scorecard we see a par 71 that plays to just 6,828 yards. There are eight par 4s that play under 415 yards, and none plays longer than 458 yards. That easily makes it one of the shortest tracks they see all year.
In calm conditions, this is a walk in the park but being by the coast we rarely see calm conditions. Mother Nature becomes one of the key defenses of the course. That is certainly true this week with winds gusting over 40 mph in practice rounds and a steady stream of wind remains in the forecast all week.
For grasses, we see some zoysia mix in the fairways but everything else is fittingly bermudagrass. Comfort on the grainy grass is a positive this week. Using the splits tool at FTN we can see what golfers have overperformed on bermuda or look at other notable splits for the week.
Looking at the last two years of results, here are the names who show the biggest increase in performance when playing courses with similar splits (short courses, bermuda greens, windy conditions, coastal courses), relative to their baseline.
- Brandon Wu
- Sam Ryder
- Chez Reavie
- Nick Taylor
- S.H. Kim
- K.H. Lee
- Joseph Bramlett
- Alex Smalley
- Brendon Todd
- Garrick Higgo
Smalley and Brandon Wu popping at a coastal course? That certainly fits the reputation they’ve built.
Plodders like Chez and Todd popping at a short track? That would also fit the narrative.
Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
With another weak field, it’s not too surprising to see the “favorites” be near the 20-1 mark. This is what we’ve been seeing for most of the fall. This is the first time I’m having some interest near the top of the board, and I’ll talk about that below.
Bermuda Championship Free Golf Bets
Brendon Todd Top 20 Finish (+210)
The straight shooter is a menace on courses that don’t force him to pound drivers and hit long irons into all of the par 4s.
He won at this course in 2019 while he also has a win at El Camaleon, and notable top-fives at Colonial, TPC Deere Run, Pebble Beach and Harbour Town. These are all courses that test you from 150 yards and in.
I wouldn’t fault you for jamming in some more top-heavy markets with Todd but with no top 10s since the Valero in early April, I am taking a more conservative stance in the top-20 market. His split stat and comp course profile is too juicy for me to ignore.
Lucas Glover Top 10 Finish (+280)
When looking for top performers in the wind, one train of thought is that short game reigns supreme. That is not Glover’s strong suit but striking it pure in the wind can be just as important at times. That is Glover’s specialty. So, it’s not a huge surprise that he ranks third in go-low rounds in the wind, despite the sub-par short game.
What stands out to me is that he brings four straight top 25s to the table this fall. He’s striking it solid and gained with the putter in four of his last seven measured events.
Back to the form, he’s more than 2 shots per round better than this field over the last three months and looking historically, golfers in that bucket have gone on to post top 10s at a 31% clip. When I ran my sims I also logged him at 30% expected top 10.
These figures would imply that his T10 price deserves to be closer to +225 rather than the +280 we are seeing.
Mac Hughes to Win (20-1, one-fourth each-way for 5 places)
Hughes is in that same three-month baseline bucket that I just talked about with Glover. He arrives with two top-10s this fall. Looking at past performance of that bucket in this size of field, we’ve seen them post top-fives at a 26% clip but the top-five portion of this each-way implies just 17%.
Expect the wind to play a big factor? It’s likely, so it’s promising that Hughes leads the field in go-low rounds in the wind over the last two years. This stellar short game can bail him out of a lot of sticky situations to keep momentum rolling along.
What caught my eye most though was to see that his event-to-event deviation was seventh highest in the field with five of the six names above him having a negative baseline strokes gained marker. That high volatility means this bet could be over and done by Thursday evening, but it also means that Hughes has the highest chance of coasting to a runaway win.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
