3 Free Bets for the 2024 3M Open

With majors done for the year, we now have a sprint to the finish line to end the PGA Tour campaign. Then, we get to clean up in the fall during the weak-field events when the journeymen are playing for their status. 

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though. It’s time to break down the 3M Open at Twin Cities. 

Course Fit

This week’s event is at TPC Twin Cities, just outside of Minneapolis. It was a hop, skip and a jump for me until last year when I move away from the Cities. Having walked the course a few times, I am more comfortable here but also want to lean into the data, as usual. 

First things first, we can look at the scorecard and see a par 71 that stretches out past 7,400 yards. That sounds pretty long, right? Especially with all the rain they’ve received this month. However, the historical yardage played here is closer to 7,200 yards. There is a good blend of short holes with long holes and a good blend of risk/reward. 

That risk/reward is really what the course is all about as the fairways are generous but the rough is thick and there is water lurking around every corner. It is the Land of 10,000 Lakes, after all. 

The three par 5s are reachable for all, as long as you have a good drive. In the past we’ve even seen Finau hit iron off the tee and still be able to attack the green in two. That ability to attack the par 5s is crucial and you need to do it with tidy striking. You can’t be spraying your approaches and leaning on short game to circle birdies because there is a good chance you’ll find water. 

Despite the thick rough and water everywhere, the course plays on the easy side. It goes back to the generous fairways and summertime softness resulting in high rates of fairways and greens hit. The result is a birdie-or-better rate around 22% which falls right in line with some of my favorite comp courses like TPC Deere Run, Detroit GC, and PGA West’s Stadium Course. 

For grass we are looking at the bent poa variety, as expected when hitting up the Midwest. 

For a course fit, we can plug in our basic splits of past performance on easy courses and courses with bent poa greens while including performance in the Midwest. 

If we weigh all of those split stats, here are the names who show the biggest increase in performance over their baseline. 

• J.J. Spaun
• Emiliano Grillo
• Jhonattan Vegas
• Seamus Power
• Rico Hoey
• Andrew Putnam
• Matt Kuchar
• Cam Davis
• Taylor Moore
• Chesson Hadley

Luke Clanton would have also cracked the list here, but his samples are so tiny, I would be hesitant to consider that a “course fit” until we see him play more varieties of courses. 

Overall, this list is loaded with elite drivers and/or iron players. I would consider Putnam and Kuchar the outlier short-game stars. 

Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

I thought it was ludicrous to see Clanton and Thorbjornsen lead the odds board in recent alternate-field events but with their sample increasing week after week, they are starting to settle in and we can be more confident in projecting the youngsters. Personally, I have Clanton projected right around Hoge and Poston so there may still be a slight “overrate the young stud” factor here but not much. 

3M Open Free Bets

Keith Mitchell over Luke Clanton (+100)

Luke Clanton has been a machine this summer, continuing to impress while still playing as an amateur. So much so that just two golfers in the field sport a better tee-to-green rating over the last six months. 

One of those names happens to be Keith Mitchell who has been striking it at an elite level for months, so I’m not overly concerned about a few missed cuts in the lead-up. 

Add in top-fives in his last two trips to TPC Twin Cities and this plus-money prices looks very attractive. 

Matt Kuchar to Win (225-1, one-fourth each-way for 5 spots)

This price is so high for a reason, but hear me out. 

Kuchar has gained on approach in four straight starts, the first time he’s accomplished that since 2019. So despite some ho-hum results, his game could be flashing some life. 

With eight career wins, we know he has that “it” factor if it all clicks for a week. Some of those wins include victories at TPC Sawgrass and Muirfield Village, so he’s very comfortable navigating around water-heavy courses. 

Last week he had to sit at home and miss The Open, could that be the nudge he needed to get him back in contention? I’m not saying it’s likely but there are enough breadcrumbs here for me to at least consider at 225-1. 

Tom Hoge Top 20 Finish +175

The man from Fargo grew up playing many summer rounds in Minnesota. This is like a second home to him. So, it’s no surprise to see him land top 20s in his last two trips to TPC Twin Cities. 

In his most recent start, he finished just T72 at The Open but he ranked 7th in strokes gained approach and second only to Scottie Scheffler in birdie looks inside of 10 feet. 

Give him an easier driving test and more comfortable green complexes and I like his chances of adding a top 20 to his 3M Open resume. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.