NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
The Masters is right around the corner, but we have one final PGA tune-up at this week’s Valero Texas Open.
Will one of the favorites head off to Georgia with a win under their belt or will someone further down the board win to punch their ticket to Augusta National? Let’s dig into the course and see what clues that might give us.
Course Fit
The host venue this week is TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course. It’s played a similar role here since 2010, so there is more than a decade of data to work with.
This par 72 stretches to 7,438 yards, which sounds relatively long, but the course is typically firm, which reduces the true yardage and also pushes more balls into the “rough.” I put that in quotes because the overseeded rough is really not a factor to worry about here.
However, this is the site of Kevin Na’s infamous “16,” so there is always chance for a blowup when missing too far offline, finding yourself in the native area with tree trouble or issues with random rocks which seem to pop up all over the place when you miss too far wide at TPC San Antonio.
Although there are four par 5s, the eagle rate sits well below Tour average, as most of them play as true three-shotters.
Looking at historical scoring, we see the field average an 18.4% birdie or better rate, but a 19.1 bogey or worse rate. That puts it into the tough course bucket.
At this time of the year, we are also seeing overseeded turf, similar to last week in Houston. There is also potential for gusty conditions in three of the four rounds as of Tuesday morning, so let’s look at wind performance as well.
What names stand out when looking at the key split stats (overseedeed greens, tough courses and windy conditions)? Here are the top 10 in the field when it comes to overall split stat performance compared to their baseline:
Max Greyserman
Seamus Power
Chandler Phillips
Keith Mitchell
David Skinns
Kevin Yu
K.H. Lee
Sam Ryder
Brendon Todd
Joe Highsmith
Skinns and Greyserman both popped last week in Houston and now they face a similar test but without all the required distance off the tee that we saw at Memorial Park.
Head over to the splits stats page to see how the entire field stacks up in these categories.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Rory gets a single-digit price this week but he’s looked off in the lead-up to the majors. As we’ve seen so many times with Rory in the past, he’s only “off” until the week it all clicks, and then he rattles off 10 straight monster finishes. It will be interesting to see if he can find his game this week or if he’ll stay more off the radar ahead of his Grand Slam attempt at the Masters.
Beyond the Winner
Outright bets provide the big payoffs in golf, but finish-position bets are good for a more consistent stream of winning, bridging the gap between outright wins.
Sam Ryder Top-10 Finish +850
Ryder leans more on accuracy than distance so he catches my eye on a course like TPC San Antonio which doesn’t force you to hit bombs. Ryder would fit right in with Conners and Spaun (winner of three of the last four VTOs) in terms of their stat profile leaning to accuracy and approach.
It’s approach play that has really stood out for Ryder this season, gaining in that department in seven of his last eight starts. He’s also spiked with his putter in three of his last four starts. There is plenty of momentum in his favor to build up his bank of confidence.
With overseeded greens this week, it’s also nice to see that he already has five starts on overseeded greens this season.
Add it up all and I have his expected top-10 rate sitting around 12%, which would imply a fair price closer to +700 rather than the +850 we are getting, available at multiple books.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
