2024 Players Championship Betting Preview

It’s time for the fifth major as the PGA Tour heads to their Ponte Vedra headquarters for the 2024 Players Championship. 

Let’s jump right in to discuss the host course and find any potential value bets on the board.

Course Fit

Played annually at TPC Sawgrass, this event has a reputation of providing carnage and early exits from the superstars. Does the data back that up? Sort of, but not exactly in recent years. 

Since the shift back to March, there have been 26 golfers who were priced with 20/1 odds or lower (the favorites). Nine of them went on to post top-10 finishes (35%) while just six of them missed the cut or withdrew (23%). This bucket of favorites includes three of the four March winners while the other was Cam Smith at 30/1 in 2022.  

This doesn’t scream “superstar ejections” like the narrative suggests. From the eye test, we see the shift back to March meaning a softer, overseeded course and also means less wind than we typically see in May. That combination results in more weekend tee times for the big names. 

Even with softer overseeded conditions, TPC Sawgrass is a tough course that heavily penalizes misses. Let’s look at those split stats to see who that fits. 

What names pop off the page when looking at the key split stats (poa triv greens, hard courses, missed fairway penalty high)? Here are the top 10 in the field when it comes to overall split stat performance compared to their baseline: 

Justin Suh
Keith Mitchell
Gary Woodland
Justin Rose
Kevin Yu
Keegan Bradley
Matt Kuchar
Sungjae Im
Ryo Hisatsune
Cameron Young

Rose has always been a tough-course crusher but his form is less than impressive. Could this be the track that gets him back in top gear? 

Head over to the splits stats page to see how the entire field stacks up in these categories. 

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Scheffler proved what a half-way decent putting week does for him last week. He cruised to an easy win Sunday, but will the putter stay hot again this week as he looks to defend his title at TPC Sawgrass? 

Beyond the Winner

Outright bets provide the big payoffs in golf but finish-position bets are good for a more consistent stream of winning, bridging the gap between outright wins. 

Sungjae Im Top 20 Finish

Best available: +280 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Worst available: +200

The young Korean flashed on the splits stats list last week at Bay Hill but he was limping in with poor form. After a T-18 finish at Arnie’s Invite, I am ready to hop back on board as this could be the start of a string of big finishes. 

He gained strokes in all four categories last week which is what you want to see ahead of TPC Sawgrass, a course that often demands all facets of your game to be clicking. 

Over the last two years, he sports a 54 percent top 20 rate when looking at courses with similar splits. That would put him just below Max Homa who is priced at +125 for a top 20 this week. We’re getting good value on Sungjae this week as his early-season slump has inflated his price but last week suggests that slump could officially be popped. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.