2024 Houston Open Betting Preview

With the Florida chapter now closed, it’s time for a little Texas two-stop to warm us up ahead of the 2024 Masters. We turn our attention toward Memorial Park Golf Course for the Texas Children’s Houston Open. 

The goal of this article is to find at least one value bet that really pops off the page. To do that, let’s dive into the course characteristics and split stats to see what golfers may be undervalued. 

Course Fit

The host venue this week is Memorial Park Golf Course. This is a public course that gets a lot of traffic throughout the year. It was renovated by Tom Doak in 2019 and we’ve seen it host the last three editions of the Houston Open. 

The first thing that stands out is the length of the course. This is a par-70 layout with five par 3s, but the scorecard still reads 7,435 yards which would be insanely long. In the past, we’ve seen them play a true yardage much shorter than this but having the ability to stretch the course that long is certainly notable. 

Sifting through past quotes and it quickly becomes apparent that driver is pulled early and often on the par 4s and par 5s here.

Looking at the scoring from past editions we’ve seen a 16.6% birdie rate from the field and a 19% bogey rate which would qualify it as a tough course. However, this year’s edition is being played in March instead of the usual fall date. As a result, we’ll see overseeded turf instead of the pure bermuda.

With softer overseeded conditions there is a chance we see a notable boost in fairways and greens hit. Which would naturally result in an easier scoring environment. It’s possible they find a way to keep it tough but for now, I’m shifting my scoring expectations closer to Tour average. 

What names pop off the page when looking at the key split stats (overseeded greens, long and driver-heavy courses)? Here are the top 10 in the field when it comes to overall split stat performance compared to their baseline: 

Parker Coody
Scott Stallings
Tom Whitney
Joel Dahmen
Nate Lashley
K.H. Lee
Justin Lower
Joseph Bramlett
Jake Knapp
Victor Perez

Knapp looked to be in the same tier as Cam Young and Finau types in terms of driving the ball, but he’s fallen off in the last two starts. Was he clubbing down too much for course management purposes at Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass or has he lost confidence in the big stick altogether? On paper, this looks like a great venue for him to gain some serious strokes with the driver. 

Head over to the splits stats page to see how the entire field stacks up in these categories. 

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Scheffler is in his own tier on the odds board and deservingly so. He’s pieced together one of the most consistent stretches of great results in modern golf. The Texan nearly had to WD from the Players with neck pain, so we’ll want to keep an ear out for any Scheffler health news leading up to this week’s event. 

Beyond the Winner

Outright bets provide the big payoffs in golf, but finish-position bets are good for a more consistent stream of winning, bridging the gap between outright wins. 

Tom Whitney Top 40 Finish

+450, BetRivers

The Air Force alum ranks just 119th in projected strokes gained for me this week, but there is more to the story. 

First of all, we saw him pop on the split stats list from above. His splits sample is relatively small, but he’s put together top-40 worthy performances in 45 percent of his events with relevant splits. 

It’s not just splits that catches the eye, though. Looking at range of outcomes and week-to-week variance, we can see that his good weeks are much more common than most in his projected SG tier. In fact, he’s posted top-40 worthy weeks in seven (of 24) starts over the last year. That would put his fair odds closer to +245 instead of the +450 we are seeing right now. 

Lastly, he calls Dallas home these days so he should be comfortable in the Texas weather and turf conditions. 

So, this is a bet I expect to lose 70 percent of the time but that 30% hit rate is a plus-EV over the long run considering the current odds are only showing implied probability of 18%. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.