Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to the sunny shores of Florida as we look to PGA National, host of this week’s Cognizant Classic. This was formerly known as the Honda Classic, for those confused by the new title sponsor.
Next thing to note is a change to the layout. Hole No. 10 has been shifted from a long par 4 into being a short par 5 for the 2024 edition. One acre of fairway grass has also been added, widening the fairways to the preferred grassing lines of 2013.
Historically this has been one of the toughest scoring non-major venues on a yearly basis so adding a par 5 to the card will shift the scores relative to par, but overall this will still be a tough test. Let’s dive in to see what names might be worth adding to our betting card.
Course Fit
As mentioned above, PGA National is the host course this week and we have decades of history to lean on when it comes to dissecting this Fazio design (Nicklaus renovation).
Playing as a par 71 this year, the course stretches to 7,147 yards but plays a bit longer than that due to the ever-present water danger. This is not a grip-it and rip-it course, as most of the tee shots will force golfers to hit a club that lands in the 250- to 300-yard range. So, past performance on less-than-driver layouts is certainly something to glance at this week.
Being in Florida, that means that we are back in bermudagrass territory and also need to watch for wind in the forecast. Past performance in the wind actually pops as the highest correlated split stat here and it makes sense with the course being so sensitive to wind. There are so many high-leverage shots with water in play on 15 holes. Even a 10 to 15 MPH breeze will add in another layer on top of the tricky baseline ball-striking requirement.
What names pop off the page when looking at those split stats (bermuda, windy, less than driver)? Here are the top 15 in the field when it comes to overall split stat performance compared to their baseline:
Taylor Montgomery
Ben Silverman
Taylor Pendrith
Thomas Detry
Gary Woodland
Maverick McNealy
Tyler Duncan
Robert Macintyre
Matt Kuchar
Keith Mitchell
Alex Noren
Billy Horschel
Nicholas Lindheim
Ben Griffin
Chris Kirk
One thing I notice from the list is that it’s a blend of big hitters and short knockers. The splits don’t call for one or the either, which has also been the case historically at PGA National. Distance never hurts but it’s also not a requirement here. You need to step up and hit a lot of high-leverage approach shots and then catch fire on the bermuda greens.
Head over to the splits stats page to see how the entire field stacks up in these categories.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
McIlroy is no stranger to PGA National but he’s left this off his schedule for a while now. This will be Rory’s first start at the event since 2018. He won the 2012 edition and also lost in a playoff in 2014 but has also landed outside of the top 35 in six of his nine starts.
Fit for a Winner
I typically lay out a finish-position bet here, but there was one outright that caught my eye after looking at a few of my course-fit metrics, so let’s go for the big one this week.
Taylor Montgomery to Win
Best available: 140/1 (Bet365)
Worst available: 100/1
Here at FTN we are a big fan of course fit. Alex typically shares his fit model during the Pro v Pro stream, and I also run a fit model of my own. I look at past leaderboards to find what lead-in stats prove to be relevant at a course, on a yearly basis.
For PGA National, that course fit model spit out Eric Cole and Chris Kirk in the top six last year. As you may remember, those two ended up in a playoff. Ben Taylor also flashed with a T-5 finish, while he was third in the fit model. Seeing Cole atop the fit list doesn’t look so crazy right now but we must remember that he had opened his rookie season with just one top 25 in his first 11 starts, so the finish results certainly weren’t leaping off the page at that time.
What does that course fit model say this time around? It still likes the defending champ, Chris Kirk, but Taylor Montgomery takes the top spot, which is where Eric Cole sat last year.
Montgomery shows up atop the course fit model and the split stat list from above, making it tough for me to overlook. He burst onto the scene in 2023 but faded in the summer. His recent results suggest that he is ready to reel off another stretch of big finishes.
He flashed his career-best approach week at Waialae and he leaned on his putting prowess at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach. It’s a big ‘if’ but if he finds a way to just be average off the tee, then it’s easy to see a scenario where he is contending.
I think 140/1 is more than fair for an outright win-only bet which is the price that Bet365 is offering. However, I will take the each-way option and go with a 100/1 price that features a one-fifth each-way option for eight places.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
