2023 WM Phoenix Open Betting Preview

The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article. The theory is that outrights, being low-probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently.

You can also reference my PGA Betting Model, which features each golfers projected odds and implied percentages for positional finishes as well as their projected odds to win and make the cut.

We are finally at one of my favorite tournaments of the year, The People’s Open, aka The WM Phoenix Open. Not only is this a week I circle on my calendar due to the awesome atmosphere at this tournament, but it is also one I have had tremendous success at from a betting perspective. Three years ago, I hit an outright with Webb Simpson, and two years ago I struck gold again with Brooks Koepka. Safe to say, I am ecstatic to dive into this week with you all.

We also have a very strong field this week, which will give us the opportunity to bet on some very talented golfers at some good numbers.

Here are the 35 golfers with the best odds to win this week across a handful of books:

A strategy I often take is to generally avoid the top of the board when it comes to outright bets. I will rarely place bets on golfers with sub 10-1 (or +1000) odds. That strategy has shown its merits over the last couple of weeks, but it is still an uneasy feeling knowing you are fading two of the most talented golfers in the world, who are also in peak shape right now with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm.

Due to the strong field, I am a bit surprised to see the sub-1000 odds this week, and especially surprised to see two golfers in this category.

Another strategy I enjoy using in betting outrights is one I like to call a tier system. By assigning golfers to different tiers based on their odds, you can adjust your unit size to account for the odds getting higher as you go down in tiers. For example, if I want to have one unit in play on outrights, but I have four different golfers I want to bet on, I can create a tiered system for these golfers in order correctly allocate the bet size for each golfer.

With that said, each week I will give a few names from three or four different tiers that I have my eye on in the betting market.

Tier 1, ‘The Favorites’

I consider this tier as “The Favorites,” and they are likely going to be the golfers with odds around +2000 or +2500 and below.

Scottie Scheffler +1300 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Xander Schauffele +1600 (BetMGM)
Collin Morikawa +1800 (BetMGM)

Tier 2, ‘The Next Best’

This is the group of high-quality golfers just below the favorites, this tier at times will be extremely loaded with elite level golfers. The odds on this tier will likely range from roughly +3000 to +5000.

Tom Kim +3000 (BetMGM)
Cameron Young +3100 (Pinnacle)

Tier 3, ‘The Mid Range’

This one is self-explanatory, and often times my favorite bets will come from this range, and they are golfers will some very appealing odds, but aren’t complete longshots. This tier will typically range from +6000 to +10000.

My favorite range this week:

Keith Mitchell +7000 (BetMGM)
Jason Day +6500 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Corey Conners +7500 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Keegan Bradley +7000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tier 4, ‘The Longshots’

This is the most volatile range, not only from a betting perspective, but from a pricing perspective as well. In extremely strong tournaments you can find some high-level golfers at this range, and in other tournaments we could find some very hidden or lesser-known names.