Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article. The theory is that outrights, being low probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently.
You can also reference my PGA Betting Model, which features each golfers projected odds and implied percentages for positional finishes as well as their projected odds to win and make the cut.
Last week was a fun one for the FTN crew as Taylor Moore brought the outright win home and Alex Blickle had him picked to win the tournament, and also added a couple of live bets on him as well for a huge week.
Here are the golfers with the top 18 best odds to win this week across a handful of books:
A strategy I often take is to generally avoid the top of the board when it comes to outright bets. I will rarely place bets on golfers with sub 10-1 (or +1000) odds. That strategy has really hurt on the weeks where we see someone like Jon Rahm dominate the field, but we are seeing such thin odds for those guys up top that I will likely continue to look down the board a bit.
Another strategy I enjoy using in betting outrights is one I like to call a tier system. By assigning golfers to different tiers based on their odds, you can adjust your unit size to account for the odds getting higher as you go down in tiers. For example, if I want to have one unit in play on outrights, but I have four different golfers I want to bet on, I can create a tiered system for these golfers in order correctly allocate the bet size for each golfer.
Another thing that is extremely important in all things betting, but especially Golf outrights, is odds shopping. You can use our Prop Shop tool to find the best sportsbook to place your bet based on where you can get the best odds.
With that said, each week I will give a few names from three or four different tiers that I have my eye on in the betting market.
We don’t have any golfers this week with a number less than +1000, as Rory, Rahm and Scheffler are all taking the week off, but we still have a few of super talented guys up top this week! However, with the weaker field, it’ll probably be a great week to take some shots on some guys with longer odds.
Tier 1, ‘The Favorites’
I consider this tier the favorites, and they are likely going to be the golfers with odds around +2000 or +2500 and below.
- Patrick Cantlay (+1800, DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Max Homa (+2000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tier 2, ‘The Next Best’
This is the group of high-quality golfers just below the favorites, this tier at times will be extremely loaded with elite level golfers. The odds on this tier will likely range from roughly +3000 to +5000.
- Jason Day (+2800, DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Sungjae Im (+4000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tom Kim (+4500, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tier 3, ‘The Mid Range’
This one is self explanatory, and often my favorite bets will come from this range, and they are golfers will some very appealing odds, but aren’t complete longshots. This tier will typically range from +6000 to +10000.
- Rickie Fowler (+6000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Corey Conner (+8000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tier 4, ‘The Longshots’
This is the most volatile range, not only from a betting perspective, but from a pricing perspective as well. In extremely strong tournaments you can find some high-level golfers at this range, and in other tournaments we could find some very hidden or lesser-known names.
- Chris Kirk (+10000, BetMGM)
- KH Lee (+11000, DraftKings Sportsbook)
