Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article. The theory is that outrights, being low-probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently.
You can also reference my PGA Betting Model, which features each golfers projected odds and implied percentages for positional finishes as well as their projected odds to win and make the cut.
It is here! Masters Week has arrived, and I could not be more excited to be talking about this biggest tournament of the year. Augusta is a beautiful setting for this historic event, and with this event comes tons of action to be found at the books.
Augusta has undergone a handful of pretty big changes to their course, and there are dozens of narratives to follow here this week: LIV golfers, Rory chasing the career Grand Slam, Scottie Scheffler looking to defend and of course Tiger Woods.
Here are the golfers with the top 30 or so best odds to win this week across a handful of books:
A strategy I often take is to generally avoid the top of the board when it comes to outright bets. I will rarely place bets on golfers with sub 10-1 (or +1000) odds. That strategy has really hurt on the weeks where we see someone like Jon Rahm dominate the field, but we are seeing such thin odds for those guys up top that I will likely continue to look down the board a bit.
Another strategy I enjoy using in betting outrights is one I like to call a tier system. By assigning golfers to different tiers based on their odds, you can adjust your unit size to account for the odds getting higher as you go down in tiers. For example, if I want to have one unit in play on outrights, but I have four different golfers I want to bet on, I can create a tiered system for these golfers in order correctly allocate the bet size for each golfer.
Another thing that is extremely important in all things betting, but especially Golf outrights, is odds shopping. You can use our Prop Shop tool to find the best sportsbook to place your bet based on where you can get the best odds.
With that said, each week I will give a few names from three or four different tiers that I have my eye on in the betting market.
With Rahm, Rory and Scottie all here (obviously) this week, the board is extremely tight up top, with all three of those guys having odds shorter than +1000. It is hard to argue against that, as these guys are clearly the best three players in the world right now, but with how difficult it is to win the Masters, it’s hard to not see the value a bit further down the board.
Tier 1, ‘The Favorites’
I consider these the favorites, and they are likely going to be the golfers with odds around +2000 or +2500 and below.
Rory McIlroy
(+700, DraftKings Sportsbook)
If betting one of the top three, it’s going to be Rory for me. He and Scottie both have excellent recent form, and although Scottie won here last year, I still believe Rory is the better course fit, especially with the recent changes to the course and the addition of some length to a few holes. Not to mention, Rory did finish second here last year.
Patrick Cantlay
(+1900, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cantlay hasn’t been overly impressive at Augusta, but he did finish T9 here in 2019 and T17 the following year in 2020. However, Cantlay simply ahs no holes in his game, he has a solid short game, which is crucial here while also being third in SG: Off-the-Tee and sixth in SG:Tee-to-Green. At these difficult events and courses, all-around skill will typically rise to the top, and Cantlay has just that as well as some solid recent from with three top 10s in his last four starts.
Tier 2, ‘The Next Best’
This is the group of high-quality golfers just below the favorites, this tier at times will be extremely loaded with elite level golfers. The odds on this tier will likely range from roughly +3000 to +5000.
Cameron Young
(+3200, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Young is my pick to win The Masters, and there’s a lot to like here for last year’s PGA Rookie of the Year. Much like Scheffler right before his amazing run last year (including the Masters win), Cameron Young recently changed his caddie, adding some amazing experience to his bag and immediately saw great results with his second place finish at the match play event. He is one of the best ball strikers in the field and if he can have a strong week in terms of his short game play, he has a great chance to contend here.
Will Zalatoris
(+4400, FanDuel Sportsbook)
This is a solid number here for Zalatoris, who is quite similar to Young in the sense that he has a great ball-striking game but at times struggles with the short game.
Tier 3, ‘The Mid Range’
This one is self explanatory, and often times my favorite bets will come from this range, and they are golfers will some very appealing odds, but aren’t complete longshots. This tier will typically range from +6000 to +10000.
- Joaquin Niemann (+7000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Justin Rose (+7000, BetMGM)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+6600, BetMGM)
Tier 4, ‘The Longshots’
This is the most volatile range, not only from a betting perspective, but from a pricing perspective as well. In extremely strong tournaments you can find some high-level golfers at this range, and in other tournaments we could find some very hidden or lesser-known names.
- Keith Mitchell (+12000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Mito Pereira (+11000, FanDuel Sportsbook)
