NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Turning our PGA betting attention toward TPC Deere Run and the John Deere Classic this week, we have another short course with loads of birdies readily available for the entire field.
My betting process always begins with an evaluation of the course and what skills are most likely to translate into success, so let’s start there.
Course Fit
The first stop each week is Alex’s course fit article:
For TPC Deere Run he sees a big uptick in the importance of approach play. That matches up perfectly with the numbers I was seeing when I ran my own analysis of past contenders at the course.
This is a good spot to point out how the course fit model can tell us a story. On paper, Detroit Golf Club and TPC Deere Run are both birdie-fests with easy scoring conditions on short courses and cool-season bent-poa turf. Those are all split stats to target but we want to pair that up with recent stats to see who checks both boxes.
Yet, last week was a heavy emphasis on off-the-tee play, while this week the lean is on approach.
We have two decades worth of data to tell us why. Detroit Golf Club lets you grip it and rip it off the tee while TPC Deere Run lends itself to more 3-woods off the tee. That’s going to account for a lot of the difference in course fit. From there, without as much capability of gaining off the tee, one of the other areas has to increase and approach play is what wins out on a soft course like we so often see here in SIlvis, Ill.
I don’t like to lock in a specific time frame or number of recent rounds as they are very subjective measures, but I do want to see some signs of life in the approach department from my plays this week.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
You know it’s an ugly board and a weak field when you notice an out-of-form Cam Young as a sub-20 outright option and it doesn’t even look out of place.
Odds Shopping
The PGA betting universe features a wide range of prices across various sportsbooks. That is certainly the case in the outright market but also holds true down the line across the top 10, top 20, and even top-40 markets. Using our prop shop tool is vital when it comes to saving time and money betting golf.
Chez Reavie Top 40 Finish
Best available: +125 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Worst available: -125
I thought we lost Reavie for good at the start of the year as he had just one top 40 in his first 14 starts this season. At 41 years of age, it wouldn’t have been shocking to see him fall off the map. But he’s found his groove again.
He arrives with top 40s in five of his last six starts. Reavie has plenty of course experience with four top 40s on his course resume, as well.
With Alex and I both highlighting the importance of approach play, it’s great to see that Reavie ranks sixth in the field in strokes gained approach of the last 24 rounds.
He’s trending well and trending in the right places for TPC Deere Run. With the use of our prop shop tool, you can find the best spot to capitalize on that. Playing a +125 line rather than a -125 line will pay off huge in the long run.
Reavie was the first play that caught my eye but keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays from Alex and myself. Alex and Justin will share some of their thoughts on Pro vs. Pro with Justin already hinting at a longshot that he really likes this week at TPC Deere Run.
It may be the weak field at the John Deere Classic but the PGA product at FTNBets and FTNDaily are both hitting their stride and the strength of field won’t stop that. We have another major just around the corner followed by the playoffs and an exciting, revamped fall schedule. It’s a good time to join, use promo code CULP for 20% off.
