2023 Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article for this week’s Genesis Invitational. The theory is that outrights, being low probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently.

You can also reference my PGA Betting Model, which features each golfers projected odds and implied percentages for positional finishes as well as their projected odds to win and make the cut. 

He is back! Tiger Woods is in the field for the first time since July of last year, and this will be his first non-major event since October of 2020. It will be awesome to see Tiger back on the course for a PGA event, and this is obviously known as “Tiger’s Tournament” since he is the host for this week. It should be another great week with tons of eyes on the PGA Tour. 

We also have another very strong field this week, which will give us the opportunity to bet on some very talented golfers at some good numbers. 

Here are the golfers with the top 35 best odds to win this week across a handful of books:

A strategy I often take is to generally avoid the top of the board when it comes to outright bets. I will rarely place bets on golfers with sub 10-1 (or +1000) odds. That strategy has showed its merits over the last couple of weeks, but it is still an uneasy feeling knowing you are fading some of the most talented golfers in the world, who are also in peak shape right now with Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler. 

Due to the strong field, I am a bit surprised to see the sub-1000 odds this week, and especially surprised to see three golfers in this category, but they are the three best golfers in the world currently, so it makes total sense. 

Another strategy I enjoy using in betting outrights is one I like to call a tier system. By assigning golfers to different tiers based on their odds, you can adjust your unit size to account for the odds getting higher as you go down in tiers. For example, if I want to have one unit in play on outrights, but I have four different golfers I want to bet on, I can create a tiered system for these golfers in order correctly allocate the bet size for each golfer. 

With that said, each week I will give a few names from three or four different tiers that I have my eye on in the betting market. 

Tier 1, ‘The Favorites’

I consider this tier as “The Favorites,” and they are likely going to be the golfers with odds around +2000 or +2500 and below. 

Rory McIlroy
Tony Finau

Tier 2, ‘The Next Best’

This is the group of high-quality golfers just below the favorites, this tier at times will be extremely loaded with elite level golfers. The odds on this tier will likely range from roughly +3000 to +5000. 

Will Zalatoris 
Jason Day

Tier 3, ‘The Mid Range’

This one is self explanatory, and often times my favorite bets will come from this range, and they are golfers will some very appealing odds, but aren’t complete longshots. This tier will typically range from +6000 to +10000.

Keegan Bradley
Sahith Theegala
Keith Mitchell

Tier 4, ‘The Longshots’

This is the most volatile range, not only from a betting perspective, but from a pricing perspective as well. In extremely strong tournaments you can find some high-level golfers at this range, and in other tournaments we could find some very hidden or lesser-known names. 

Si Woo Kim
Seamus Power
Taylor Montgomery