Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
TPC Southwind will host the opening event for the 2023 FedEx Cup Playoffs.
We have a lot of history to lean on here, but there are plenty of fresh faces seeing the course for the first time. That is where course fit comes into play and becomes so important. Let’s lead with that.
Course Fit
The first stop each week is Alex’s course fit article:
For TPC Southwind he found plenty of predictive power in his model with a 9 out of 10 rating, putting an emphasis on driving distance and putting.
When I combine that with watching the event for years, why would distance be important. It’s a course with a lot of water in play and when the fairways aren’t super soft it forces driver out of hand for the big hitters.
Not all courses that lean to the less-than-driver nature are suited for short hitters, though. Power hitters are still able to club down to a long iron or 3-wood and maintain some distance while taking some of the water out of play.
Why would putting pop? With very small greens, there aren’t a lot of three-putting issues for terrible putters to fall into. However, on the flip side, with relatively easy putting surface, the best of the best are able to one-putt on more than 50% of their holes.
So, with power and putting getting a bump, what golfers check both boxes this week? There are six golfers that rate out in the top 20th percentile or better in both stats when looking at recent rounds: Nick Hardy, Wyndham Clark, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley, Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Nothing surprising about this odds board as it falls pretty closely in line with weighted baseline performance.
Odds Shopping
Using our prop shop tool is vital when it comes to saving time and money betting golf. Let me point out one example of the difference it can make.
Andrew Putnam Top 20 Finish
Best available: +280 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Worst available: +220
The course-fit model called for driving distance and putting. While Putnam doesn’t check the distance bucket, he definitely checks the putting box.
Putnam has gained strokes putting in 70 percent of his measured rounds this season which is second in the field behind only Xander Schauffele.
On top of that, he’s proven he can take it low at TPC Southwind in the past. He’s bagged top 25s in his last three trips to Memphis including runner-up finish in 2018 and a T-5 finish last year.
Using the prop shop tool, you can snag a +280 number here instead of settling for +220 at some other books.
Check out the PGA bet tracker for more plays from Alex and myself.
As the playoffs kick off this week and the fall series just around the corner, it’s a great time to check out the PGA product at FTNBets and FTNDaily. Use promo code CULP for a nice discount.
