Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article. The theory is that outrights, being low-probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently.
You can also reference my PGA Betting Model, which features each golfers projected odds and implied percentages for positional finishes as well as their projected odds to win and make the cut.
This week we get another multiple-course rotation, with two courses in play here at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open.
Hudson Swafford won this event last year with a score of -23, and Si Woo Kim the year before that with the same score.
Here are the golfers with the top 20 best odds to win this week across a handful of books:
A strategy I often take is to generally avoid the top of the board when it comes to outright bets. I will rarely place bets on golfers with sub 10-1 (or +1000) odds. If you read this article last week, you know how that failed with Jon Rahm winning once again, but the more favorable a favorite becomes to win, the more value opens up down the remainder of the field. Jon Rahm is clearly in impeccable form, so betting against him does not feel great, but again that will lead to more value in the rest of the field.
Another strategy I enjoy using in betting outrights is one I like to call a tier system. By assigning golfers to different tiers based on their odds, you can adjust your unit size to account for the odds getting higher as you go down in tiers. For example, if I want to have one unit in play on outrights, but I have four different golfers I want to bet on, I can create a tiered system for these golfers in order correctly allocate the bet size for each golfer.
With that said, each week I will give a few names from three or four different tiers that I have my eye on in the betting market.
Tier 1, ‘The Favorites’
I consider this tier as “The Favorites,” and they are likely going to be the golfers with odds around +2000 or +2500 and below.
- Xander Schauffele, 11-1 or +1100 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Justin Thomas, 18-1 or +1800 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tier 2, ‘The Next Best’
This is the group of high-quality golfers just below the favorites, this tier at times will be extremely loaded with elite level golfers. The odds on this tier will likely range from roughly +3000 to +5000.
- Jason Day 30-1, +3000 (PointsBet)
- Hideki Matsuyama, 40-1 or +4000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tier 3, ‘The Mid Range’
This one is self explanatory, and often my favorite bets will come from this range, and they are golfers will some very appealing odds, but aren’t complete longshots. This tier will typically range from +6000 to +10000.
- Dean Burmester, 80-1 or +8000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Alex Smalley, 80-1 or +8000 (BetMGM)
Tier 4, ‘The Longshots’
This is the most volatile range, not only from a betting perspective, but from a pricing perspective as well. In extremely strong tournaments you can find some high-level golfers at this range, and in other tournaments we could find some very hidden or lesser-known names.
