Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article. The theory is that outrights, being low-probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently.
You can also reference my PGA Betting Model, which features each golfers projected odds and implied percentages for positional finishes as well as their projected odds to win and make the cut.
Max Homa racked up his 6th PGA win last week in exciting fashion, let’s hope for more of that this week at this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
This week we have our third straight multi-course rotation — a common theme here in California I suppose — and this is also a Pro-Am.
Tom Hoge won here last year, and he will be in the field looking to defend his title.
Here are the golfers with the top 30 best odds to win this week across a handful of books:
A strategy I often take is to generally avoid the top of the board when it comes to outright bets. I will rarely place bets on golfers with sub 10-1 (or +1000) odds. That strategy showed the pros and cons to itself over the last two weeks, but with the “favorite” being +1100 in Matt Fitzpatrick, he could be in play for me this week if I like him, although the number is still not my favorite to chase.
Another strategy I enjoy using in betting outrights is one I like to call a tier system. By assigning golfers to different tiers based on their odds, you can adjust your unit size to account for the odds getting higher as you go down in tiers. For example, if I want to have one unit in play on outrights, but I have four different golfers I want to bet on, I can create a tiered system for these golfers in order correctly allocate the bet size for each golfer.
With that said, each week I will give a few names from three or four different tiers that I have my eye on in the betting market.
Tier 1, ‘The Favorites’
I consider this tier as “The Favorites,” and they are likely going to be the golfers with odds around +2000 or +2500 and below.
- Tom Hoge — 22-1, +2200 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Viktor Hovland — 13-1, +1300 (Circa)
Tier 2, ‘The Next Best’
This is the group of high-quality golfers just below the favorites, this tier at times will be extremely loaded with elite level golfers. The odds on this tier will likely range from roughly +3000 to +5000.
- Alex Smalley — 50-1, +5000 (BetMGM)
- Joel Dahmen — 40-1, +4000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tier 3, ‘The Mid Range’
This one is self explanatory, and often times my favorite bets will come from this range, and they are golfers will some very appealing odds, but aren’t complete longshots. This tier will typically range from +6000 to +10000.
My favorite range this week:
- Nick Hardy — 70-1, +7000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Matthew NeSmith — 85-1, +8500 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Ben Griffin — 60-1, +6000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Davis Riley — 70-1, +7000 (BetMGM)
Tier 4, ‘The Longshots’
This is the most volatile range, not only from a betting perspective, but from a pricing perspective as well. In extremely strong tournaments you can find some high-level golfers at this range, and in other tournaments we could find some very hidden or lesser-known names.
- Justin Lower, 160-1 +160000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Kevin Yu, 180-1 +180000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
