Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The options in the PGA betting markets are wide, and while there are several ways to attack those markets, outright bets (or picks to win the tournament — outright) are going to be a large part of the key focus in this article. The theory is that outrights, being low-probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently.
You can also reference my PGA Betting Model, which features each golfers projected odds and implied percentages for positional finishes as well as their projected odds to win and make the cut.
This week we get a bit of a changeup in the sense that we have an event with a three-course rotation, and for that we head to Southern California at the American Express.
Hudson Swafford won this event last year with a score of -23, and Si Woo Kim the year before that with the same score.
Here are the golfers with the top 20 best odds to win this week across a handful of books:
A strategy I often take is to generally avoid the top of the board when it comes to outright bets. I will rarely place bets on golfers with sub 10-1 (or +1000) odds. Although that is not a steadfast rule, it is one that I will be utilizing once again here this week despite how strong Jon Rahm’s current form is as he has five straight top-10s and three wins in his last five starts.
Another strategy I enjoy using in betting outrights is one I like to call a tier system. By assigning golfers to different tiers based on their odds, you can adjust your unit size to account for the odds getting higher as you go down in tiers. For example, if I want to have one unit in play on outrights, but I have four different golfers I want to bet on, I can create a tiered system for these golfers in order correctly allocate the bet size for each golfer.
With that said, each week I will give a few names from three or four different tiers that I have my eye on in the betting market.
Tier 1, ‘The Favorite’
I consider this tier as “The Favorites,” and they are likely going to be the golfers with odds around +2000 or +2500 and below.
Cameron Young, 22-1 or +2200 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Will Zalatoris, 20-1 or +2000 (Caesars)
Tier 2, ‘The Next Best’
This is the group of high-quality golfers just below the favorites, this tier at times will be extremely loaded with elite-level golfers. The odds on this tier will likely range from roughly +3000 to +5000.
Aaron Wise, 50-1 or +5000 (BetMGM)
Si Woo Kim, 40-1 or +4000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tier 3, ‘The Mid Range’
This one is self explanatory, and often my favorite bets will come from this range, and they are golfers will some very appealing odds, but aren’t complete longshots. This tier will typically range from +6000 to +10000.
Jason Day, 70-1 or +7000 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Wyndham Clark, 80-1 or +8000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Tier 4, ‘The Longshots’
This is the most volatile range, not only from a betting perspective, but from a pricing perspective as well. In extremely strong tournaments you can find some high-level golfers at this range, and in other tournaments we could find some very hidden or lesser-known names.
Dean Burmester, +15000 (BetMGM)
Taylor Pendrith, +10000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alex Smalley, +13000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
