NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
The 3M Open doesn’t receive a lot of fanfare, but it’s one of my favorite events on the PGA schedule. I lived in the area for six years and have walked the course a few times. It’s always more fun to watch and handicap an event when you’ve been on the grounds.
Let’s jump right in to talk about how this event sets up from a betting point of view.
Course Fit
The first stop each week is Alex’s course fit article:
This week he points out distance and iron play as being key pointers toward success at TPC Twin Cities.
When I ran my analysis it came back with distance, approach play and some scrambling. Not around the green play or putting by itself, but scrambling, which often picks up some course-management signal.
Having watched this event in the past, that would make sense as you don’t have to be the most accurate to contend here but you do need to know when to go full send and when to lay back, seeing there is water in play on more than two-thirds of the holes. With hot and humid temps in the forecast I would expect firm fairways and soft greens (at least in the morning).
When I look at recent performance of the above stats, along with long-term split stat performance, and correlated course performance, here are the names that grade out in the top 10: Cam Davis, Peter Kuest, Charley Hoffman, Taylor Pendrith, Tony Finau, Stephan Jaeger, Sepp Straka, Callum Tarren, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Hideki Matsuyama and Cameron Champ.
It’s actually 11 not 10, as Matsuyama and Champ tied for 10th. Hoffman is the most surprising name on the list because his results are not great by any means. His underlying stats suggest that he could find a big finish soon. Is that enough to pull the trigger?
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Pick any other year in his career and JT would be priced at the top of this board alongside Tony Finau. Instead, his current slump has him at +2800 and not particularly appealing at that price. You are banking on pedigree and pedigree alone if you are firing on Thomas this week.
Odds Shopping
Using our prop shop tool is vital when it comes to saving time and money betting golf. Let me point out one example of the difference it can make.
Michael Kim Top 40 Finish
Best available: +188 (BetRivers)
Worst available: +140
Over the long haul you can pick up a lot of extra cash just by winning your bets with the best line available instead of sticking with one book and playing whatever line they toss out.
What makes Kim an appealing play this week? He arrives with three straight missed cuts. He had a poor putting week at the John Deere, had a poor driving week at the Scottish and lost with his irons at The Open.
That doesn’t sound so great but despite having those three missed cuts, he’s only lost three total strokes to the field in those events. He’s been missing the cut on the number and as long as he crosses that fine line then a top-40 is well within his range of outcomes.
Looking at his split stats he’s posted nine made-cut worthy performances in the Midwest over the last two years. That is the best in the field. His lone PGA Tour win also came in the Midwest. These low-scoring, target golf events suit his style so I like his chances to poke his head into this mix this week at TPC Twin Cities.
Check out the PGA bet tracker for more plays from Alex and me.
The regular season may be winding down but it’s still a great time to check out the PGA product at FTNBets and FTNDaily. The beautiful thing about DFS golf is the prize pools are still solid for the weak, fall events and with many turning their focus to NFL, the competition gets distracted. It’s a good time to join, use promo code CULP for a nice discount.
