Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
The PGA Tour’s regular season schedule comes to an end this week in Greensboro, N.C., as the field gathers for the Wyndahm Championship. The tournament is being played at Sedgefield CC, the host since 2008, and on/off host since the inception of the tournament in 1938. The storylines this week will not only be paying attention to who will be winning but also those golfers scratching and clawing for enough FedEx points to remain inside the top 125 and retain their PGA Tour Card for next season. While this article will be diving into searching for value in the outright market, the golfers sweating tour cards is another interesting storyline to follow this week.
Sedgefield CC Stats
- Par 70 – 7,131 yards
- Driving Distance
- Driving Accuracy – 62%
- Greens in Regulation – 74%
- Architect – Donald Ross
Course Takeaways
- Sedgefield has one of the highest GIR rates from the fairway and from the rough.
- To go along with the above statement, Sedgefield has one of the lowest scoring rates, relative to par, from the fairway.
- Driver is taken out of hand often, another knock of distance advantage this week.
- Greens are typically quite fast, and while there are always outliers, through past studies I’ve found fast greens are more difficult and can separate the field more.
- OTT, no boost for distance which brings everybody into play OTT, while leanings towards those who are more accurate (although clubbing down helps the field as well).
- APP, standard as most courses are on Tour – going to need to have adequate iron play.
- ARG, while it can be tricky, missing too many greens here will already be a problem and I will not be bumping any importance to around the green.
- Faster greens put slightly more emphasis on this skill but won’t be the main focus.
- Fairly straightforward week, with the major tweak being no major advantage to distance.
Wyndham Outright Selections
- Billy Horschel 20/1 — BetMGM
- Harold Varner III 40/1 – BetMGM
- KH Lee 80/1 – BetMGM
- Andrew Putnam 170/1 – FanDuel Sportsbook
We’re coming to a course that takes away distance advantage, pushing more toward precision driving, solid irons and good putting – welcome to Billy Horschel (20/1) week. I tend to be quite bullish on Horschel at courses that take away distance and I’m back on him this week. His baseline rating alone makes him one of the best in this field even before a positive adjustment. Horschel is better than the field in all the main categories outside of distance and has been playing quite well this year. He often has some of his best finishes when it pays to play more from the fairway and his track record at this course suggests it suits. Although his first handful of trips here didn’t pan out, he’s finished T11 or better in four of his last five trips here, including second in 2020. An excellent putter who also has had some of his best performances on Bermuda, it’s simply another feather in the cap, even if it’s more qualitative in nature. He’s consistent but also scores plenty of upsides rounds, which is often a recipe for success and even more so going up against a simply average field.
While not necessarily the best fit, Harold Varner III (40/1) baseline alone warrants a wager for me. He will need to find strokes on the green this week, but his approach play should give him plenty of looks if he stays out of trouble off the tee. He has a tidy game around the green, which hopefully he won’t have to use much or he won’t be winning but when it’s needed, he should hold his own. This is a “hometown” narrative as well with HV3, being a Carolina product although it hasn’t panned out here – he has shown well at Harbour Town and has two T10’s at Sedgefield amid many other poor to average finishes. He doesn’t win much but this has been the year many golfers who “can’t close and don’t win” have won multiple times and perhaps we can get another name to add to the list of that lot. 2022 has been by far his best year as far as total strokes gained goes and there is no reason, he can’t continue that play this week and best this so-so field.
Although he’s coming off back-to-back missed cuts, like Varner, KH Lee (80/1) is having a career year in 2022. He’s already notched a victory at the Byron Nelson, which was his only true flash of brilliance all year. He’s been above average at just about everything, but not elite in any one area to keep any consistency. That said, on any give week he has peaked in all four strokes gained categories, just rarely during the same week. The game is in there and I think in a low scoring environment and easier course he should feel more comfortable than when trying to grind out pars and avoid disaster holes. He’s fairly good OTT. which shouldn’t kill him this week, but his approach play will have to turn around from where it has been the last month. If he can play from the fairway, he should be able to find the greens enough to get the looks and we know he can have those upside putting weeks.
My last selection is one of those deep shots where we hope the stars align and the course fit tweaks are correct. Andrew Putnam (170/1) finds a lot of fairways and makes a lot of putts which often bodes well on courses such as Sedgefield. While his play is often just average, I think a lot of it is a product of how fare behind he plays from the tee box. He’s normally already losing strokes before hitting a shot which won’t be the case at as he steps up to his drive on many holes this week. His approach play is a major concern but at the same time he has gained over 1 stoke per round on four occasions this year. His putting is his top skill so if his irons aren’t finding the green it will be over quickly for him but at 170/1 the expectations are obviously not high to begin with. He is one of the more accurate drivers in the field and with such a high rate of green hit from the fairway here, he will hopefully be able to improve his normally subpar irons and perhaps we will have a big sweat come Sunday.
For all of my picks across the golf world (PGA/DP World/LPGA) be sure to check out my Bet Tracker, and if you’re not a subscriber use code AXIS for 20% off.
