Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Axis is coming off a week of tipping the DP World Tour victor, Adri Arnaus at 35/1, and he’s trying to back it up with another winner this week!
The Wells Fargo Championship is up for grabs this week on the PGA Tour, and although the tournament name is familiar, the location will be different than usual. Normally played at Quail Hollow, this year’s tournament will take place at TPC Potomac, as Quail Hollow prepares the grounds for the upcoming President’s Cup.
TPC Potomac is not new to the PGA Tour, although it has not hosted a PGA event since the 2018 Quicken Loans National, which was won by Francesco Molinari. We have strokes gained data from that tournament, as well as from the 2017 Quicken Loan, which was also played at TPC Potomac and won by Kyle Stanley.
TPC Potomac (data from 2017/2018 Quicken Loans National)
Par 70 | 7,160 yards
Driving Distance (P4/5) | 284 yards
Driving Accuracy | 58%
Greens in Regulation | 62.3%
Although it’s only two years of data, strokes gained off the tee (OTT) stood out the most, correlating stronger than usual to overall strokes gained. That was followed by approach and putting, and around the green trailed far beyond an average course.
Don’t let the OTT number fool you though, these gains were mostly driven by accuracy over distance in the two years of data. When I ran through the numbers, the rough didn’t seem to be super penal (relative to par) on the par 4s and 5s. However, the greens in regulation (GIR) difference between the fairway and rough were quite substantial (34%). With the “relative to par” metric, there can always be more noise considering other factors than simply the rough that comes into play after the approach shot. If a golfer hits it into the rough, then hits it to 20 feet and three putts, that score is reflected in that metric, despite the rough not causing the poor score. This is why I also look at the GIR% from the fairway and rough for comparison, although even this isn’t perfect because I don’t adjust for distance. We know it’s harder to hit greens the further away the golfer is. When golfers land drives in the rough, they often end up further from the hole because they don’t get the same roll out as they might when landing in the fairway.
Overall, there appears to be a larger benefit to playing from the fairway more often this week than usual. Of course, approach play is always important, but with the minimal gains through the short game, perhaps even more of an emphasis will be on ball-striking this week at TPC Potomac.
Wells Fargo Championship Outright Selections
- Paul Casey 41/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Max Homa 48/1 (FanDuel)
- Cameron Young 50/1 (FanDuel)
The field this week has more depth than last week but still has a strong tail off at the top where Rory McIlroy opened at the betting favorite around 7/1. He is defending his title but away from Quail Hollow, which perfectly suits his skill set. I agree with the market that he should be the favorite, but I won’t be backing him this week. In fact, I’m skipping the entirety of the shorter odds and starting my card with Paul Casey 41/1. To start, I’m not certain Casey is 100% healthy. With the PGA Championship looming, I find it hard to believe he would be playing if he could risk tweaking his back, but it is a risk. If he’s healthy and swinging free, 41/1 is a lovely number, and I find it worth taking despite the unknowns. When we last saw him healthy, he finished T3 at The PLAYERS, another course that puts the preference on finding fairways over distance, and overall he’s played well during 2022. He has yet to lose strokes with his approach play and has been serviceable OTT. I wish he was a bit more accurate (historically he is), but he hasn’t been wild and still has distance to add on top. Again, working with a smaller sample in golf can be dangerous, but TPC Potomac seems to fit the cliché of “ball-strikers paradise,” and that is Casey’s best skill. Hopefully the course plays similar to 2017/18 and his lack of a steady short game isn’t as big of a hindrance this week.
Hardly down the market is Max Homa 48/1, an enticing and worthwhile bet when compared to my number. Homa, like Casey, makes most of his gains with his driver and irons, and he has a so-so short game. He has been fairly accurate this year OTT to pair with his distance and has shown stretches of big gains on the greens. But the bulk of his heavy lifting will be done before reaching the green. He hasn’t sniffed a win since September when he won the Fortinet Championship, but he’s been steady all year with consistent Top-20 finishes and will have less competition this week than usual. Quite simply, I believe he’s one of the better golfers in this field and think his appropriate number is much closer to mid-20’s than high 40’s. The win equity difference is a few percent, and I don’t make McIlroy quite the favorite that the market does. I have more golfers bunched between 20/1 and 50/1, which is where Homa falls for me. He hasn’t recently played many courses that push the advantage toward accuracy over distance, but in the past, he has had great finishes at Valspar, Memorial and Pebble Beach. While those courses are not exact comparables, the emphasis off the tee appears similar, and he’s navigated them well.
Lastly, I am back on PGA rookie Cam Young 50/1. This was a number I showed the most value on, and I continue to be higher than the market on him. Sure, I potentially have some smaller sample bias, as I’ve phased out his KFT numbers, relying on his smaller sample of PGA numbers. But even so, his play has been impressive, and I didn’t understand this opener by FanDuel. Perhaps the best combination of distance and accuracy on my list, his iron play has become a bit more consistent while his short game has been up and down. He just tackled RBC Heritage, showing great ball-striking on a course that puts an emphasis on playing from the fairway, gaining almost two strokes per round with his ball-striking and finishing T3. He has also had a few weeks to recharge after playing eight straight weeks to start the season, and with his solid play, perhaps he can focus more on the task at hand rather than the worry of simply making cuts. That is complete speculation and a narrative on my part, while the real story has been his play. Winning is difficult, and the first might be the hardest. But he’s won at each level of his career, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets a PGA Tour title. With how he’s been playing, he deserves to be priced closer to 30/1. Let’s hope we can catch his maiden tour victory at this solid number of 50.
To see all of my picks for the Wells Fargo Championship, as well as the DP World Tour’s British Masters, check out the FTN Bet Tracker. If you’re not a subscriber, use code AXIS for 20% and I hope to chat with you soon in our subscriber discord!
We are four months into the season and below is my record so far. This is always publicly available on FTN Bets, as well as a downloaded CSV of my betting history!
- Sides = Matchups
- Props = Positional (T5/10/20/40)
- Parlays = Specials/Make Cut
- Outright = Winners
