Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour returns to familiar stomping grounds as they head to Connecticut for the Travelers Championship, played at TPC River Highlands. Harris English the defending champion, having defeated Kramer Hickok in a playoff and fending off Marc Leishman, Abraham Ancer and Brooks Koepka.
Last year’s leaderboard was dominated by superb driving and putting; another year in which the driver is utterly important. Playing from the fairway has led to more success at River Highlands over the year and I would expect more of the same this year.
The Course – TPC River Highlands
Par 70 – 6,832 yards
Driving Distance – 282 yards
Driving Accuracy – 65%
GIR Fairway – 79%
GIR Rough – 48%
Greens – Bentgrass/Poa annua
Note from GCSAA: A cold spring has caused the rough to only start waking up this month
Key Course Takeaways
- Although long hitters have won here, distance is negated, with a preference to playing from the fairway.
- The main penalty for missing fairways is how many greens are hit from the fairway, compared to the rough.
- Golfers will face a lot of 100- to 150-yard approaches, no matter if they’re a power hitter or not.
- Approach play has been less important than an average PGA Tour course.
- Over the last five years, the data show around-the-green has played more of a factor than at an average PGA Tour course.
Travelers Championship Outright Selections
- Tony Finau 40/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Davis Riley 50/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Webb Simpson 80/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tom Hoge 150/1 (BetMGM)
With the U.S. Open having taken place just down the road, a handful of the world’s best have stayed in the area to play the Travelers and while a case can be made for many, I didn’t fancy any of the favorites at market price. Instead, I will be starting my card with Tony Finau (40/1). He missed the cut in a painful way last week but didn’t have his best stuff off the tee, which was the true killer of his week. The accuracy woes are a concern at River Highlands, and he’s been so-so at best driving the ball here in the past. Surprisingly though, his approach play has been quite bad here, which is normally a strong point of his. Perhaps it doesn’t fit his flight or simply what can happen over six different tournaments but whatever the reason it will have to improve. His tee-to-green game is more than good enough to win here and I’m slightly ahead of the market on his number. He has been paying strong golf but getting in his own way; let’s hope the continued strong iron play persists and he can stay out of trouble OTT.
Just past Finau on the board is Davis Riley (50/1) and if you aren’t already aware (you probably are if you’re reading this), he has all the tools for success. A fairly strong driver, he has above-average distance and accuracy, which has been key at River Highlands in the past. Riley has gained strokes on approach in five straight events, averaging just over 1.5 per round, which includes a strong section of the schedule this year (Byron Nelson, PGA Championship, Charles Schwab, Memorial and U.S. Open). Over the last six tournaments he has played incredible golf, with his worst finish being 31st at last week’s U.S. Open, and three top-10s. His game may not be a perfect fit with just an average game ARG and sometimes his irons disappear but he should be playing from the fairway quite a bit and with his form and ability I think the 50/1 is a nice value.
I haven’t bet on Webb Simpson (80/1) in a while but the adjustments for the course to his baseline was enough to get me on this number. It feels like River Highlands should suit Simpson’s short but accurate driving style, typically backed by strong iron play. He has played this event nine times, making the cut in eight of those (missed last year), but only has two top-10s. I say “only” because we’ve seen what type of success, he has at other courses that suit his style (Sedgefield and Harbour Town). He’s been consistent but nothing special in 2022 and perhaps a short course that puts an emphasis on accuracy will be just what he needs. He hasn’t had a top-10 since last fall (RSM Classic) and maybe his age is finally catching up with his game but at 80/1, he’s worth backing this week.
It’s been a tough stretch for Tom Hoge (150/1) since winning at Pebble Beach but 150 is too high for a course that should play to his strengths. We’ve seen him at the Travelers numerous times over the last decade with limited success, mainly due to terrible play on and around the green. His putting is always a bit suspect, but he has good weeks often enough to make you believe he can find it. 2022 has been his best season ARG but that could be some noise, hard to say quite yet but his strength is his approach play. His lack of distance shouldn’t be detrimental this week and if he keeps the ball out of the hazards, we could see him up on the leaderboard. It’s a bit much to ask but I think he should be closer to 110 than 150.
For all of my picks for the Travelers Championship, check out the Bet Tracker. You will also find any plays for the DP World Tour and LPGA Tour. If you’re not a subscriber, use code AXIS for 20% off today.
