2022 RSM Classic Betting Preview

Back-to-back outright hits! Can we make it three in a row?

Betting possibilities are endless in PGA, but my focus is on outrights. The theory here is that outrights, being low probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently. Additionally, I believe my focus on course fit can lead to large edges in the outright market, where books are under-adjusting odds. Whether your interest is in the outright market, top 10/20 market, matchups, or all of the above, my expected strokes gained projections can be your best friend. You can also heavily reference Kyle’s PGA betting Model and Josh’s projections.

The road to 100 units continues:

I already have four outrights posted in the bet tracker. Sign up for a FREE TRIAL with promo code BLICK to join the fun. Let’s dive in…

Course Fit Model

First, a brief summary of the Course Fit Model for the RSM Classic, from my Course Fit article for FTNDaily:

“Every week, there’s a mad dash across the industry to try to figure out who best fits the course – you’ll hear everything from course history citations to quotes like “It’s a bomber’s paradise.” But what if we could actually mathematically measure which players are the best fits? We can.”

In other words, there’s no need for speculation of which skills will translate into success at a given course when we can measure it directly.

There’s an emphasis on driving accuracy this week, so our proprietary strokes-gained: driving accuracy metric is crucial to success. Like all other baseline strokes-gained metrics, you can find these numbers with the course fit projections.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

The books aren’t making the same mistake with Tony Finau that they’ve made the past two weeks. The guy is elite. Immediately, you probably notice that the top of the odds board is full of guys who rarely find themselves so high. This is driving me to long shots, especially where I can get each-way bets.

Odds Shopping

As is always the case, the low hanging fruit of the PGA betting world is odds shopping through the use of our prop shop. The differences in odds from one book to the next are often larger in PGA than you’ll ever see in leagues like the NBA or NFL. Simply shopping for the best odds can turn a losing bettor into a profitable bettor in PGA. This week, the largest edge comes in the each-way market. Here’s a perfect example of line shopping with each-ways:

Chris Kirk

• Best available outright: 66-1 (with an each-way option at BetRivers)
  Worst available outright: 50-1 (at FanDuel)
• Best available top 5: 12-1 (at multiples books including BetRivers)
  Worst available top 5: 10-1 (at FanDuel)
  Top 6 as part of the each-way: 13.2-1 (BetRivers)

Including the outright at the best price in the market gets you more favorable odds for a top 6 than the best available odds in the market for a top five. That’s tremendous value.

Since not everyone has access to books with each-way offerings, here are some additional outrights with wide gaps in odds between books:

Matt Kuchar (50-1 at BetMGM, as low as 33-1 elsewhere)

David Lipsky (90-1 at FanDuel, as low as 66-1 elsewhere)