Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
Golf is returning home. For the first time since 2015, the Open Championship will be played at the Old Course in St. Andrews, Scotland. The historic venue plays host to the Open every five years, with the last three winners here being Zach Johnson (2015) and Tiger Woods (2010/2005).
The Open Championship always runs the risk of advantageous wave splits due to weather and is something bettors should be aware of before placing wagers. Wind is the best defense for many links courses and the Old Course is no different and weather will likely play a factor in this year’s Open. The course has undergone slight changes and routing throughout the years to combat the advancements in golf, but the history remains and there should be a romantic feel to the 150th Open Championship, as the best in the world gather to battle for the Claret Jug.
Course Details – Old Course at St. Andrews
Par 72 – 7,313 yards (theopen.com)
Stats from 2015 Tournament
- Driving Distance – 293
- Driving Accuracy – 72% (large fairways)
- Greens in Regulation – 74% (large greens)
- Scrambling – 50%
Key Course Takeaways
- Despite some changes to combat technology and better skill, distance is still a larger advantage than most weeks.
- While avoiding the long rough is always important, the Old Course has large fairways and there is no advantage for more accurate golfers, as plenty of bombers will find many fairways as well.
- There are only two par 5’s and two par 3’s, leaving 14 par 4’s.
- Depending on the wind direction, many of the short par 4’s are potentially drivable.
- While only played every five years for the Open, the Old Course is part of the course rotation of the Dunhill Links championship on the DP World Tour.
- There will be plenty of long lag putts or golfers may choose to chip, but scrambling will play a factor.
Open Championship Outright Picks
- Patrick Cantlay 26/1 — FanDuel
- Hideki Matsuyama 55/1 (7 places, 1/5 odds) — BetRivers
- Keith Mitchell 125/1 (7 places, 1/5 odds) — BetRivers
- Cam Young 130/1 – DraftKings
- Talor Gooch 175/1 (5 places, 1/4 odds) – FoxBet
I’m getting right back on the wagon with Patrick Cantlay (26/1) this week after backing him last week at the Scottish Open (same odds, too). He had a strong showing, finishing three back of champion Xander Schauffele, having gained strokes in all four categories, with his best working coming from his irons and putter. The Old Course will be a different test, however Cantlay has the tools to excel and the overall talent from tee to green to win. He is strong off the tee with above-average distance, which is backed by normally strong iron play. However, the key will most likely come down to his short game, which is a great combination of chipping and putting. His Open results have been a mixed bag, with a 12th, 41st and a missed cut last year, but I don’t know how weather played a factor in those results and honestly three tournaments can be full of a lot of unknowns and noise. What I do know is he is one of the best golfers in the world with three top 5’s in his last six stroke play events, and only one missed cut during that time frame. The least desirable information about Cantlay is his lack of top finishes in majors but sometimes things just don’t click. Before Patrick Reed won his green jacket, he only had one top-10 finish in a major in 16 events and the same questions were being asked about him. Cantlay has the talent and skill set to play well anywhere, but I think it sets up quite well for what he will face at the Old Course this week.
Hideki Matsuyama (55/1) is a frustrating golfer to back because he is elite tee to green and struggles mightily on the greens. Last week at the Scottish Open he simply had nothing going but prior to that he was his same old self. Perhaps he just doesn’t putt well enough to ever make a run, but I find it hard to pass on a number much higher than where I think his talent says he should be. It’s not like he never gains on the greens he just rarely has those peak weeks that are needed to win. Oddly enough he’s gained strokes putting in four straight events and he finished inside the top five in two of those. When he won The Masters, it was an above-average week putting for him, but he mainly did it with his irons and around the green play and that is what I’m hoping for this week. He’s long off the tee, the iron play is consistent, and I know he can scramble with the best of the field, it really does come down to hitting putts for him and that is one of the reasons I took the each-way. Not only was 55 the best number I saw, the seven places give some leeway and reduces some variance, on top of getting a nice number on seven positions.
Now we’ve reached the portion of some longshots who I believe we’re getting solid value on their outright as well as the each-way as well for two of them. First up is Keith Mitchell (125/1), and while you could potentially find him for slightly higher, I had a lot of value on the seven-place each-way as well as the 125/1. Mitchell is a bit erratic with his irons and around the green and although average irons are not ideal, if I’m sticking with driving and putting there aren’t many better with that combination, especially at these odds. His recent play mixed with his skills should be a solid matchup for the Old Course and while Mitchell winning the Open would be a shock, him competing and placing would make sense to me.
A familiar face to this preview, Cam Young (130/1) makes another appearance. There is no each-way with him so it’s much more of a long shot, but I think his game should suit the Old Course. Will there be a learning curve to a course such as this? Possibly, but I find it hard to quantify that, so I’ll be a number that doesn’t match the play. I did the same thing at the PGA Championship and Young was hanging in there until late Sunday, which had to have given him some confidence that he could potentially win one of these and soon. He’s coming off two missed cuts, but his well-rounded game and exquisite driving sets him up if he can figure out the weather. He does however struggle from the sand and will need to avoid the pot bunkers at all costs (like most, if we’re being honest). Low expectation but high upside with this number.
Last, we’re going over to the dark side to back LIV member Talor Gooch (175/1). The number alone seems extremely high and then paired with a 43/1 top five on the each-way, I couldn’t resist. His weak driving is a concern, but the rest of his game is good enough to make up for it and I actually think the poor driving may be mitigated a little bit this week. He has solid distance and accuracy at times but it’s inconsistent and wild which hopefully wider landing areas helps out, although he could find trouble but that’s the chance we take at 175/1. While we don’t have strokes gained from LIV, he’s performed well in those two events and hit a lot of greens, but also missed the cut at the US Open – which I don’t think suits him quite as well as the Old Course. There are surprises each and every major, that don’t often end up winning, but let’s see if Gooch can be that surprise this week and at least cash the hefty 5-places wager and give it a run for the Claret Jug; something that would cause the golf world to go into a frenzy!
For all of my picks for the Open Championship, check out my Bet Tracker. If you’re not a subscriber, we are running an amazing promo right now for the 150th Open. At checkout, use code OPEN150 and get $150 off the annual subscription. This is the best deal that will be offered so don’t wait, and I hope to chat with you soon in the subscriber Discord.
