Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The PGA Tour is heading to Mexico for a new event on the schedule, the Mexico Open. In recent years, the WGC Mexico had been on the schedule, but with changes to the Tour, the WGC has moved on and been replaced with a regular event.
Like the event, the course will also be new, and we will be seeing Vidanta Vallarta for the first time. The PGA Tour website describes the course as a Par 71, totaling 7,456 yards with paspalum greens and splendid views of the Sierra Madre mountains. Other notable features are wide landing areas, bordered by waste areas, water hazards and numerous bunkers.
It will be interesting to see how it plays, considering there are a couple quite short par 4’s and par 3’s, and the remaining holes are quite long compared to the average length per par; adjusted for par, this will play as one of the longer courses on the Tour schedule. As you can see by the chart below, only six holes play below-average length, with one extremely short par 4, and a majority of the course is much longer than usual par 4 holes. While par is just a number, when we don’t have any historical stats to go off, hole length and features can be used to make educated assumptions about how the course may play (and can be even more helpful for projecting DFS points).
Not all holes of the same length are created equal, but in 2021, par 4’s playing 475 yards or longer were played at 0.19 strokes above par, which generally increases as hole length increases (makes sense). Again, the importance of this would be to project birdies/pars/bogeys for DFS scoring or potentially any scoring prop markets offered by sportsbooks this week.
No matter what the par number actually is (this is a converted Par 73 course for the public), or how difficult the scoring may or may not be, distance would appear to be an advantage due to the longer length of a majority of the holes, and perhaps the field sees more longer approach shots than a usual week.
Mexico Open Outright Selections
(odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Tony Finau 30/1
- Aaron Wise 40/1
- Carlos Ortiz 100/1
This field gathering in Mexico is not deep, to put it lightly, and the market responded by opening up with Jon Rahm as the favorite at 6/1, followed by Daniel Berger anywhere from 9 to 12/1, with most books jumping straight into the 20’s for the next favorites (Berger has WITHDRAWN just after finishing this article). My model showed similarity with the lack of true talent at the top of the field and similar profiles once moving past Rahm and Berger. Abraham Ancer and Sebastian Munoz were tempting at 25/1 and 33/1, but instead I’m starting off with Tony Finau 30/1.
It’s rare that I bet on Finau, because I tend to be behind the market on him if he shows anything, but his results have quite simply been pedestrian. However, with this field I do think he’s slightly more favorable than the market suggests. My adjustments based on how I assume the course will play are part of my decision, and while Finau’s short game has struggled this season, he’s consistently been gaining off the tee (OTT) and on approach (APP). His distance has declined over the last three years, but his strokes gained OTT numbers have been consistent, suggesting the dial back in distance is perhaps finding more fairways or less unplayable tee shots. He is also still gaining over half a stroke per round with his irons, and his short game is what has been costing him. Although it’s been a struggle all of 2022, historically he’s had good touch around the greens, and despite the narrative of his putting being poor, he’s gained strokes putting three of the last four years on Tour. I can’t project that the short game woes suddenly disappear, but his talents and ball-striking paired with this field make him an attractive option at 30/1.
Not moving much further down the board, my next selection was Aaron Wise 40/1. Prior to adjusting for the course, I already made Wise a higher favorite than 40, and when adding the adjustments for my course profile, he only improved. Wise only has one PGA Tour victory, back during his rookie season in 2018, which he won at Trinity Forest. I bring this up because I believe you can make an argument this course could potentially be similar. Trinity Forest was also 7400 yards with longer par 4s and par 5s, and wide fairways that played into the hands of those longer off the tee. That didn’t go into my number, however, on the surface the connection makes sense, and I’ll be curious to see how the first few rounds play out in Mexico to compare. What it boils down to, though, is Wise is great OTT, which I predict will be a nice advantage this week, and although his approach play can be sporadic, when he finds the form he has gained no less than 0.8 strokes per round this season. It has been feast-or-famine, though, because when he hasn’t gained more than 0.8, he’s lost at least 0.5 per round. His short game is so-so, but he has regularly shown he’s not incompetent around and on the greens and has the ability to gain the necessary strokes in those departments to win again.
The last golfer I decided to back for an outright winner was Carlos Ortiz 100/1. In a similar vein to Finau and Wise, my number prior to adjusting for the course showed some value to the 100/1, and I believe Ortiz should fit fairly well at this course. He’s longer than average while also not being wild OTT (although this may not be as big of an issue this week), and his iron play and putting can be consistent strengths. The problem with Ortiz, and the reason he’s 100/1, is because he’s missed four straight cuts and hasn’t finished better than 33rd in 2022. The fields he’s missed have been much stronger than this week’s, but it is a concern that he hasn’t been able to string together back-to-back better than average rounds since February. Perhaps being back in Mexico will inspire (one can dream), and the extra focus will be enough to spur on a good week. That honestly hurt to type out, because those types of narratives make me chuckle. But as I’ve said before, it’s crazy to see what types of motivation can do to athletes, and golf is no exception. I cannot account for this or in good faith use it to model, but considering I already liked his number, a narrative crafted for his benefit can’t be a bad thing (when in fact it’s probably nothing). Lastly, while on the topic of narratives and possible positive connections, I will note that like Wise, Ortiz played one event at Trinity Forest in which he placed 12th. It’s a bit of a stretch, but the 100/1 is a solid number in this field despite the lack of consistency we’ve seen from Ortiz.
For all of my picks this week including finishing position and picks from the DP World Tour and LPGA Tour, check out the PGA Bet Tracker. If you’re not yet a premium subscriber, use code AXIS for 20% and join us in the premium discord chat! Good luck this week, and I hope to chat with you soon.
