NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
This week the PGA Tour heads north to Ohio for The Memorial Tournament, which takes place at Muirfield Village. Jon Rahm leads the market, returning to the scene of his post-Round 3 withdraw due to COVID-19, surrendering a six-shot lead. Patrick Cantlay earned the victory after Rahm’s departure, his second Memorial trophy, holding off Collin Morikawa in a playoff.
Although there are a few surprising champions from time to time, the list of distinguished winners is long at this tournament, most often by way of iron play and delicate hands around the greens. More pronounced that last week, golfer will prefer to be playing from the short-grass and avoiding the penal rough that lines the fairways, with past fields averaging only 46% of greens in regulation from the thick rough. This rough also causes issues around the green, which only puts even more of a premium of finding the greens with irons to avoid as many scrambling opportunities as possible.
The Course – Muirfield Village
Par – 72, 7,533 yards
Greens – Bentgrass
Driving Distance – 287 yards
Driving Accuracy – 67.6%
GIR Fairway – 75%
GIR Rough – 46%
Historically, OTT as a whole hasn’t played as large a role at Muirfield, probably because distance is a bit muted and accuracy become more of a factor to avoid the rough. Muirfield Village usually has a high percentage of fairways hit which isn’t often the case for a course in which we think accuracy is a premium, and it also has a handful of holes in which much of the field won’t hit a driver. The clubbing down paired with the thick rough is the main driver point of pushing accuracy ahead of distance this week. Like most weeks, the key will be gaining through approach play and being able to avoid tricky scrambling as much as possible, but I will be baking in an extra premium on around the green that I normally wouldn’t on an average week.
2022 The Memorial Outright Selections
- Will Zalatoris 35/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Cam Young 40/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Mito Pereira 50/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Corey Conners 60/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
I’ll be starting my selections with Will Zalatoris (35/1) despite him having missed the cut last week. He had one of his worst tournaments of his short career with his irons, which is abnormal, but he continued to drive the ball extremely well. I don’t think he has suddenly forgot how to swing a club and perhaps the extra days off got him some rest coming off that PGA Championship. That is me spinning a narrative that I have no way of knowing but the point was I am not bothered by the poor irons or missed cut. I did knock him for his accuracy although he beats the field occasionally, it’s not his strongest skill, however his iron play continues to shine and when he does miss greens, he has been surprisingly good around the greens. We know the struggles with the putter but that is the least of my concerns this week and hopefully he can take advantage of the wide fairways and stay out of the rough, putting those world class irons on display.
A betting preview mainstay is next on the card as I go back to Cam Young (40/1). He continues to impress — I understand the name recognition may not quite be there and this is a deep field, however if you covered up names on the ratings and stats sheets, I believe many would guess the golfer they’re looking at is one of the world’s best – and perhaps he will be in time. It’s his rookie season and in 17 starts he has eight tops 20’s, and five top 5’s, including three straight events. His ability off the tee has been world class and although that get a knock this week, his improved iron play can hopefully make up the difference. His play around the green can be lacking at times and he if he’s in a bunker it can get dicey, but overall, his short game is solid and definitely good enough to win an event. Muirfield may not be the perfect fit for Young, but with how he’s been playing and his skill ratings in my model, I still think the market is undervaluing his ability.
I’m going to need the PGA Championship to pick up with it left off because I’m adding another golfer from the top of that leaderboard; Mito Pereira (50/1). If you’re a subscriber, you saw I went back to Pereira for positional wagers last week despite many having fears of his mental state after his finish at Southern Hills. While that was an unknown and there was a possibility of a let down occurring, I saw him give interviews and pressers and although he was disappointed, he didn’t seem dejected and broken. The numbers suggest this could be another good week for Pereira as he continues to improve his overall game. I expect him to navigate from the tee box with success and his approach play over the last two months has been superb. The worry would be if his short game can hold up but he’s not a disaster around the greens and although is putting is sporadic, he’s had more positive than negative events.
It feels like Muirfield Village would be a good fit for Corey Conners (60/1) but in four trips he hasn’t finished better than T22 (but has made the cut all four times). He has driven the ball quite each time he has been here however his normally strong approach play failed him twice, lose more than 0.5 strokes per round. His form has been steady, coming off of a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but he had previously made seven straight with a T10 at The Masters and Match Play events. Often a battering ram for “bad putter” speak, his play has been the opposite of. Dating back to 2021, he’s positive putting (adjusting for field) over more than 40 events and gains more often than he loses on the greens. His main issue is he still lacks the massive upside putting events. While you can win being an average putter, it is still difficult if you’re not having big rounds on the greens to “go low”. His steady approach is normally better suited for finish position wagers however I think the 60/1 is a bit to high and think he fits well enough to be worth the wager.
For all of my picks, including the DP World and LPGA Tour’s, check out the Bet Tracker. If you’re not a subscriber, use code AXIS for 20% off and I hope to speak with you soon in the FTN Discord.
See below for my results in 2022, and check out the full history.
