Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Betting possibilities are endless in PGA, but my focus is on outrights. The theory here is that outrights, being low probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently. Additionally, I believe my focus on course fit can lead to large edges in the outright market, where books are under-adjusting odds. Whether your interest is in the outright market, top 10/20 market, matchups, or all of the above, my expected strokes gained projections can be your best friend. You can also heavily reference Kyle’s PGA betting Model and Josh’s projections.
Course Fit Model
First, a brief summary of the Course Fit Model for the Mayakoba Classic, from my Course Fit article for FTNDaily:
“Every week, there’s a mad dash across the industry to try to figure out who best fits the course – you’ll hear everything from course history citations to quotes like “It’s a bomber’s paradise.” But what if we could actually mathematically measure which players are the best fits? We can.”
In other words, there’s no need for speculation of which skills will translate into success at a given course when we can measure it directly.
This week we have a strong course fit model with a super unique emphasis on our proprietary strokes-gained: driving accuracy metric. Remember — the more unique the course fit model, the larger the potential edge… use promo code BLICK for 20% off to gain access if you haven’t already.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Tony Finau is a nice value as he’s neck and neck with Scottie Scheffler in my projections, but most of my interest comes a ways down the board this week with course fit specialists.
Odds Shopping
As is always the case, the low hanging fruit of the PGA betting world is odds shopping through the use of our prop shop. The differences in odds from one book to the next are often larger in PGA than you’ll ever see in leagues like the NBA or NFL. Simply shopping for the best odds can turn a losing bettor into a profitable bettor in PGA. This week, the largest, or at least most important, discrepancies I’ve found are:
- Brian Harman (40-1 at DraftKings and BetMGM, as low as 28-1 elsewhere)
- Russell Henley (50-1 at DraftKings, as low as 30-1 elsewhere)
- Keith Mitchell (66-1 at BetMGM, as low as 45-1 elsewhere)
- Hayden Buckley (80-1 at DraftKings, as low as 55-1 elsewhere)
- Justin Rose (100-1 at BetMGM, as low as 70-1 elsewhere)
