Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Normally set the week prior to the British Open, this year’s John Deere Classic will be two weeks before the year’s final major, with the field gathering in Silvis, Ill. TPC Deere Run will host the event, which it has been doing since 2000, providing plenty of data and past results to dig through. Following the usual trend, the field for this years John Deere Classic is particularly weak, rating out worse than average in my player ratings, with a real lack of star power or depth. I assume many PGA members will be preparing to head to Europe for next week’s Scottish Open, which this year is an official PGA event (co-sanctioned with DP World Tour). Longtime sponsor, John Deere, was probably hoping that by moving back a week from The Open they could entice a few more top golfers than usual but it’s bleak as ever.
The Course – TPC Deere Run
- Par 71 – 7,289 yards
- Driving Distance – 287 yards
- Driving Accuracy – 70%
- GIR Fairway – 79%
- GIR Rough – 50%
- Green type – Bentgrass
Note from GCSAA: Since last year the course underwent a comprehensive bunker renovation and competitive enhancement project. Bunkers were completely rebuilt with new grass surrounds, drainage, liners and sand, which also included reducing overall square footage by 30% and repositioning as needed to increase course strategy.
Key Course Takeaways
- More wedges and short irons than average Tour course
- Rough not overly penal but there is such a high rate of greens hit from the fairway that there is a slightly higher “penalty” for missing fairways.
- Fairways are not a challenge to hit, further impacting the penalty for missing one.
- Scoring is easy and golfers will need to be giving themselves birdie looks and capitalizing, leading to a preference to average/above average putters
- Driving historically has played a large part in success more than approach, due to distance and accuracy leading to an advantage
John Deere Classic Outright Selections
- Taylor Pendrith 80/1 — DraftKings Sportsbook
- Hayden Buckley 150/1 — DraftKings Sportsbook
- Satoshi Kodiara 300/1 Each-way (6 places, 1/5 odds), BetRivers
As you can see, there was nothing near the top of the market that caught my eye. There are plenty that will fit the course well but I’m not in an agreement on the numbers – often far off, especially with the favorites – Adam Hadwin is 10/1 at DraftKings?
Instead, I found three golfers who will need all the help in the world but I think have value. I started with Pendrith (80/1) who will be playing his first tournament since The Players. The risk is that we don’t know exactly how he’s feeling or if he’s 100% but for the sake of one outright, that I make at a good number, it’s worth the risk. We often don’t know anything about how golfers are feeling so I assume if he’s playing, he’s good to go. I’m pushing towards the large driving advantage that Pendrith often has, although I do wish he was a better putter. The distance advantage isn’t necessarily larger here than other courses, but I do think the data shows it’s the largest of the skills here, along with playing from the fairway. While Pendrith isn’t above average at hitting fairways, for his distance he’s fairly accurate and I’m hoping it is his path to the top.
Buckley (150/1) isn’t the shortest hitter, but slightly below tour average, but he makes up for it by playing a lot from the fairway. The rest of his game leaves quite a bit to be desired but he’s shown some flashes at times. He lacks consistency and the fact he’s on the card speaks to the lack of depth of the field this week. Of course, 150/1 also tells you what you need to know, even if my number is slightly better, it’s a large ask. Buckley continues to drive the ball well which will hopefully lead to a successful week and help offset his poor iron play.
I questioned my numbers when I saw Kodiara (300/1) showed some value, considering how awful he has been. Again, a product of this field, a small edge on the 300/1 and the each-way, I took the chance. Any success will rely on him having to out duel the field in driving accuracy and find a putter. I don’t have a lot to work with and paint a pretty picture for his one – no form, recent or long term, and only sparingly does he gain strokes in any category. The best I can say is that in the last extremely weak PGA field he played in (Mexico) he finished T15, so perhaps with a little magic he can pay off the each-way and give us a sweat.
For all of my picks, including props and positional wagers, across the PGA, DP and LIV golf tours, check out the FTN Bet Tracker.
