Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Betting possibilities are endless in PGA, but my focus is on outrights. The theory here is that outrights, being low probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently. Additionally, I believe my focus on course fit can lead to large edges in the outright market, where books are under-adjusting odds. Whether your interest is in the outright market, top 10/20 market, matchups, or all of the above, my expected strokes gained projections can be your best friend. You can also heavily reference Kyle’s PGA betting Model and Josh’s projections.
Coming off a successful Russell Henley outright, I’m hungry for another! Hopefully we can cross the 50 unit threshold by the Tournament of Champions:
Course Fit Model
First, a brief summary of the Course Fit Model for the Houston Open, from my Course Fit article for FTNDaily:
“Every week, there’s a mad dash across the industry to try to figure out who best fits the course – you’ll hear everything from course history citations to quotes like “It’s a bomber’s paradise.” But what if we could actually mathematically measure which players are the best fits? We can.”
In other words, there’s no need for speculation of which skills will translate into success at a given course when we can measure it directly.
This week we have a course that blasts the predictive powers of both aspects of driving at the expense of iron play. Remember — the more unique the course fit model, the larger the potential edge… use promo code BLICK for 20% off to gain access if you haven’t already.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
For the second consecutive week, Tony Finau is the first player to jump off the board at me since he projects remarkably similarly to Scottie Scheffler.
Odds Shopping
As is always the case, the low hanging fruit of the PGA betting world is odds shopping through the use of our prop shop. The differences in odds from one book to the next are often larger in PGA than you’ll ever see in leagues like the NBA or NFL. Simply shopping for the best odds can turn a losing bettor into a profitable bettor in PGA. This week, the largest, or at least most important, discrepancies I’ve found are:
- Taylor Montgomery (27-1 at FanDuel Sportsbook, as low as 20-1 elsewhere)
- Keith Mitchell (66-1 at BetMGM, as low as 50-1 elsewhere)
Those are both significant, but nothing compares to the spread for this last guy — I’ve never seen anything like it:
- Gary Woodland (125-1 at BetMGM, as low as 65-1 elsewhere)
Absolute insanity. I’m jumping on the 125-1 without hesitation.
