Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour makes its way back to California for this week’s Genesis Invitational, being played at The Riviera Country Club. Riviera is often called a true classical style golf course, playing as a par 71 and 7,322 yards. The tournament attracts a deep field yet scoring is typically above par and the course on average only yields three birdies per round. The field will be faced with longer than usual approach shots into greens scattered among the courses difficult par 4s and longer par 3s.
Fairway accuracy is a low 54%, with green in regulation numbers coming in roughly the same at 55%. Despite the low numbers, missing fairways at Riviera, historically, has not been all that penal. Greens are even difficult to hit from the fairways here and the kikuyu (grass) rough isn’t long and thick. Greens in regulation from the fairway are only hit 68% of the time, one of the lowest numbers on tour and well below the tour average of 78%. This tends to lead to a larger than usual advantage to distance off the tee compared to accuracy.
Putting has shown to be a bit tricky as well, with higher miss rates inside 15 feet, which could level the playing field for those golfers who are missing more greens than the field. This could potentially be beneficial to poor putters as well. I have not looked into it thoroughly, but with more of the field struggling from this range than usual, better putters may miss more often in this key range, bringing their make percentage closer to that of worse putters. It’s a theory that I probably should dive into more, but it makes sense in my head (so how could it be wrong!?). The further away from the hole, the more luck becomes a factor in predicting made putts (I know, groundbreaking). The best putters in the world most often are gaining more strokes inside of 15 feet. Of course, this works both ways where the bad putters from this range might miss more than usual as well but when more randomness is introduced, it should level the playing field slightly, on a large scale.
Upon a quick glance it was a very mixed bag comparing golfers’ usual rates to historical rates at Riviera, mainly due to small sample size. In general, golfers who have shown to have success here over the years have performed better than usual in this range. My biggest question with this hypothesis would be – why exactly are the greens harder to make putts on? Is it the randomness of the grass (poa), the speed, the undulations, time of day, weather, etc. Perhaps there isn’t as large of a benefit to poor putters as I would think depending on what the true cause of the difficulty is. This is a larger project for another day but I felt like word-vomiting for all to see with a chance that somebody reading this, smarter than me, has some ideas on the topic. I’ve done some basic studies on grass types and found poa to be the most random when comparing to a golfer’s results on every other surface so perhaps the poa greens here are indeed a large cause of the difficulty of making putts inside 15 feet.
Overall, Riviera is a stern test rewarding those who bring an overall stellar game to the event. There have been a fair amount of repeat winners (plus lefty’s) and comparisons to Augusta National, although oddly enough, neither Jack Nicklaus nor Tiger Woods have ever won at Riviera. I will be leaning on guys who gain a majority of their strokes off the tee through distance and will be taking a look at those golfers who have been solid from 175+ yard approach shots. My regular model and ratings will make up the base and largest portion of my ratings for the week as usual.
Below you will find two free bets for this week’s Genesis Invitational. For all of my picks, check out the Bet Tracker. If you’re not a subscriber yet, use code AXIS for 20%!
Top 40 | Joaquin Niemann
+110, FanDuel Sportsbook
Niemann’s game feels like a wonderful fit for what Riviera will ask, despite his past results in this tournament. That said, he’s playing some of the most consistent golf of his career and seems to have added some touch around the greens which can hopefully help out his putting by getting it closer to the hole. He has the distance and iron play that will be necessary and he’s coming off back-to-back top-10s in strong fields. This just feels like a prime spot for him to succeed as my numbers are telling the same story.
Top 20 | Abraham Ancer
+460, FanDuel Sportsbook
I feel Ancer has the tools to perform well here but hasn’t, similar to Niemann. He does lack distance off the tee which will not be helpful this week but overall is a strong ball striker. The biggest concern for me with Ancer is his suspect short game because greens have proven difficult to hit at Riviera, so golfers are going to have quite a few holes they have to scramble on. and this is Ancer’s weakest skill. Despite all that, I think the number is poor given his overall talent and baseline and even after adjustments I think he stands a higher chance to get inside the top 20 this week. One last thing of note, if you’re into the Augusta National comparison, Ancer has finished 13th and 26th in his two trips to Augusta. Both courses do reward distance and iron play, while needing some touch around the greens. It’s not something factored in heavily but more of a comfortable narrative when combing through stats.
