2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview

This week marks the first FedEx Cup Playoff event, being played at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tenn. We have a new tournament name, but the course has previously been used for the FedEx St. Jude Classic and then the FedEx St. Jude Invitational. The top 122 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings are in the field (although depending on a LIV lawsuit, this could add three golfers) and there will be a cut after round two, in which the top 65 and ties will continue on to the weekend. There are three golfers that are eligible but are not in Memphis – Lanto Griffin, Tommy Fleetwood, and Daniel Berger. 

TPC Southwind Stats

• Par 70 – 7,243 yards
• Driving Distance – 289 yards
• Driving Accuracy – 56%
• GIR (all holes) – 60.3%
• GIR Fairway – 73.8%
• GIR Primary Rough – 36.7%
• Rough to fairway difference – 0.358 strokes
• Architect – Ron Prichard

Course Takeaways

• GCSAA makes note it’s been one of hottest summers on record and the area has been in a drought – could be very firm/fast conditions this week.
• From a bird’s eye view, pretty average course on the PGA tour, nothing really jumps out.
• Accuracy preferred adjustment OTT, as evidenced by a 36.7 % GIR rate from the primary rough at TPC Southwind.
• Iron play slightly above tour average but again, nothing to warrant any over adjustment.
• Short game may be needed with a lower amount of GIR’s hit, but chipping not overly difficult at Southwind per the numbers.
• More mid-range irons than most courses, lending to the slightly higher than average strokes gained through approach.
• Overall emphasis on ball striking, with a preference to gaining through accuracy OTT.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks

• Viktor Hovland 35/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Sungjae Im 40/1 Each-way (BetRivers, 6 places, 1/5 odds)
• Aaron Wise 80/1 Each-way (BetRivers, 6 places, 1/5 odds)
• Harold Varner III 120/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

In deep fields, there are always golfers who we (or the public) think highly of who fall down the leaderboard for one reason or another because the books have to spread out the top. This week for me, there are two golfers like that, and I’ll start with Viktor Hovland (35/1). Hovland has one glaring problem – his game around the green. It’s quite astounding really, and it could raise eyebrows at a course that only has a GIR percentage of 60.3% on all holes however I think the rest of his game can overcome it this week. While the expectation that he will lose strokes ARG is real, it’s his putting that will have to make up for this and something that has troubled him in two trips to TPC Southwind. This course can be difficult and may be more so than usually if the drought has caused it to dry out more than usual. Hovland’s elite ball striking will be even more of a weapon if this is the case, and his combination of distance and accuracy will be quite the advantage. It’s a bit anecdotal but it feels, of late, Hovland’s best finishes this season have been in deeper fields and at courses that are more of a test than usual. If this holds true and Southwind is more difficult than usual it could play into his hands as well. Overall, he’s extremely talented with a deficiency that he can overcome through superior iron play and solid putting – which he’s proven he can do quite often. 

I was a bit shocked to see BetRivers offering Sungjae Im (40/1) at this number considering he’s finished second in back-to-back events, and we typically see the market react strongly to that kind of recent form. I understand the field strength is top level, but I anticipated mid-20s and was happy to scoop the 40. There isn’t much Im does wrong, and I’m surprised he hasn’t won multiple events this year. If anything, it could be those putting weeks needed to “go low,” but he’s by no means a bad putter and he’s well above average tee to green. His baseline alone is solid and he’s coming to another course in which his distance and accuracy OTT should be a nice advantage and his iron play is sharp. He seemed to have a rough go of it in Europe but returned to his consistent ways upon returning with the two aforementioned second places, which were heavily done through supreme ball striking which will be most important this week (as usual).

We’ve arrived at the section each week where we will need all the bounces. Deep fields rarely produce shocking winners and while Aaron Wise (80/1) is a PGA Tour winner I think it would be a bit of a shock for him to win this event. That said, I feel his chances are better than 80/1 and I grabbed the each-way as well for 6 places. His approach play has been a let down over the last month which is a bit unusual for him so I’m hopeful, but it is a concern. He remains stellar OTT, which has been the key to his career year (as far as strokes gained total) and while his putting remains up and down, his overall short game is solid enough to win. 

Lastly, I am once again backing Harold Varner III (120/1). It’s a large number compared to what I made and while I hold many of the concerns I had while backing him last week, I can’t pass it up. He has drove the ball extremely well in his three trips to TPC Southwind but nothing else has clicked, particularly on the greens. He’s not exactly known for his putting and perhaps the Bermuda does give him fits compared to other surfaces because he’s been particularly bad here. I’m hoping it’s more of a small sample issue, but even taking that into consideration isn’t enough to pass. He hasn’t lost strokes with his irons since the Genesis Invitational back in February, and he’s only lost strokes off the tee four times dating back to that same event (with the worst being only -0.34 at RBC Heritage). We see the flashes; we just need Varner to figure it out on the greens a bit more consistently because he has the tee-to-green game to be a PGA Tour winner. 

If you would like to see all of picks for the week, check out my Bet Tracker. If you’re not a subscriber, use code AXIS for 20% off.