Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour will stay in California for this week’s tournament, the Farmers Insurance Open, which will be played at Torrey Pines. It should be noted that the tournament will start Wednesday, so the final round can be played Saturday and avoid going head-to-head with the NFL Sunday.
The tournament is split between the North and South courses for Rounds 1 and 2, with Rounds 3 and 4 being played on the South Course. The South Course is the more famous of the two and where last years US Open was held.
The North Course plays easier than the South Course, with golfers on the North average 1.8 strokes below par in 2021, while average 1.3 over par on the South Course. If golfers do not take advantage of scoring on the North, it could be tough to make the weekend (Friday/Saturday).
The South Course, where three of the four rounds will be played, is a beast. It is a par 72 that tips out near 7,800 yards with narrow fairways and poa grass greens. As you could guess with the length of the course, distance will be a larger advantage than at an average Tour course and should be factored in far more than accuracy. You may read plenty of people talk about the importance of accuracy here, but it doesn’t play that important of a roll as long as a golfer isn’t pumping their ball into the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are narrow, and enough golfers will be missing them that the penalty for missing them isn’t as large as you would believe it to be. The greens can be hard to hit even from the fairway and having some touch around the greens will be important. The poa greens can cause some issue and we have historically seen higher percentage of putts missed inside of 15 feet; again, putting emphasis on making sure chip shots get the golfer as close as possible to avoid the unpredictable bumps that can be present in poa greens.
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Farmers Insurance Open Picks
Below are two of my picks for this week’s tournament. For all of my picks across the PGA Tour, DP World Tour, and LPGA Tour please go to the Bet Tracker. If you’re not yet a subscriber, we would love for you to join us! Use code “Axis” for 20% off and we hope to see you in the premium Discord soon.
Matchup | Dustin Johnson over Marc Leishman
+100, DraftKings Sportsbook
We haven’t seen Johnson since he played the CJ Cup in October, and apparently the market seems to have forgotten how good he is. This isn’t a slight at Leishman but more on how the market is weighing time off. Leishman has shown his face twice already this season with respectable showings at the Tournament of Champions and Sony Open. While I’m sure competition doesn’t hurt, Johnson has shown plenty of times in his career he kicks the season off with hot starts. I feel the market is overreacting to the layoff and potentially Leishman’s past success at Torrey Pines. No matter how I break it down, through my simulations, strokes gained, different times frames – I make Johnson the favorite in this matchup.
Group E Winner | Talor Gooch
+250, FanDuel Sportsbook
(vs. Patrick Reed, Ryan Palmer, Si Woo Kim)
It feels this is Gooch vs. course history, and FanDuel needed to toss a fourth golfer similar to the others in group. The only real disadvantage Gooch has in this group would be his off-the-tee play, although he still often outperforms Reed in that category. Gooch is long enough to not be left in the dust at Torrey, but not long enough to be extra advantageous. A usually reliable and average short game let him down last week, but the strength of his game, his irons, has continued to be a bright spot. He has finished 3rd at the Farmers Insurance Open in the past so success isn’t unfamiliar. Whatever time frame you want to look at, he’s been the best golfer of the group over the last 80 rounds, and I don’t think the superior course history of Reed should be enough to bump Gooch to the third spot of this group. I have ignored Si Woo Kim for the most part in my analysis, but he finished similar to Reed in my simulations of this group. They are all solid golfers, and while Reed has the pedigree, his inconsistent play means he isn’t always contending. I believe Gooch should be the slight favorite of this group and happy to take the +250.
