NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
The PGA Tour returns to Texas this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge, which will take place at the famed Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. A regular stop on tour since 1946, there will be plenty that wax poetically about this classic course and what it offers.
The course does pose a challenge, with most winners finishing mid-teens below par and putting an emphasis more on playing from the fairway than overpowering with pure distance. Crisp approach play appears to be more of a factor than the average week on tour, and the overall statistics remind me a bit of Sea Island GC (Plantation), which is part the RSM Classic. There are parts of Harbour Town as well in the stats as far as success coming through approach play and putting, and less from around the green and off the tee.
Colonial CC Past Stats (Last 3 tournaments)
Driving Distance – 280 yards
Driving Accuracy – 55.5%
GIR% Fairway – 77.5%
GIR% Rough – 50.0%
As you can see, over the last four years, approach play stands out the most at Colonial compared to the average course on Tour, with slightly less emphasis on OTT and ARG. Something to note that is not in the above table is that accuracy played a more important role in the OTT than distance. The rough itself isn’t super penal, and the 27% difference between GIR numbers from the fairway is close to tour average, however the course isn’t long and limits the distance advantage found at many Tour courses.
Charles Schwab Challenge Outright Selections
- Viktor Hovland 20/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Talor Gooch 40/1 (BetMGM)
- Tommy Fleetwood 40/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Cameron Tringale 95/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Troy Merritt 110/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
When you’re as good as Hovland (20/1), you can play well at any course, but I think Colonial suits him better than many considering what we’ve seen work here. He is one of the best drivers of the ball in the world, backed by elite iron play and suitable putting. It may not always appear pretty on TV, but I think many would be surprised at his strokes gained on the green when they look it up. Currently he’s ranked 59th on the season, which only takes into account his PGA events, and he putted quite well in his trips to the Middle East earlier in the year. If the year ended now, 2022 would be his best year putting — time will tell if this level is sustained, but he’s proving he can putt well enough to win and make up for his poor game around the green. He played this event in 2020, finishing T23, navigating the course wonderfully with his ball striking but was simply average with the short game. He had similar results in his only trip to Harbour Town where he finished T21, but also struck the ball well and gained almost a full stroke OTT, despite what Harbour Town does to the distance advantage. Clearly, he can manage his game OTT when it needs to be changed from simply pounding driver, which may be the case this week.
Lackluster finishes in the past may leave some wondering, but I feel Colonial is a good fit for Talor Gooch (40/1). This will be his fifth time playing the event, with his best finish being T14 in 2021. His game reminds me of Webb Simpson in a sense that he’s nothing special OTT (less accurate in fact) but average enough, and strong with irons and in. He obviously hasn’t reached Simpson’s level of success but more to the point that courses such as Colonial, Pebble Beach, Harbour Town, Seaside, etc. should see a boost to his expectation (despite having not seen it quite yet). 2022 has been Gooch’s best year to date on Tour, which is important to note as well when looking at his past results. He grabbed his first win on tour back in the fall of 2021 at the RSM Classic (Seaside GC) which I find promising and although he only has one T10 since, he’s been playing a lot of courses that from my vantage point don’t seem to play to his strengths as much. Hopefully returning to a setup like Colonial is a boost and he can take advantage of his best skill – his approach.
I was a bit surprised to see Tommy Fleetwood (40/1) open at those odds, considering the Sunday he had at the PGA Championship — that’s the kind of situation where overreactions typically are made. Perhaps he didn’t get enough air time, but regardless I’m happy to take a shot on the Englishmen who seems to be finding his game. He has yet to win on the PGA Tour (or frequently worldwide) often plagued by a poor round while contending but that will not stop me. This will be his first trip to Colonial, but he’s played well at Harbour Town in the past, through solid approach play and putting earlier this year. I wouldn’t say he has a clear strength to his game anymore, what used to be elite ball striking has dwindled from his career highs but he’s still gaining over 0.5/round in this area backed by an above average short game on and around the green. This isn’t a massive edge, but I think there is enough there at the 40 to play and ride a bit of form from his last four stroke play events.
This is the portion of the program where we get into the weeds a little bit, but we’ve had some close calls in this range the last few weeks which goes to show why we bet these unlikely winners when the value exists.
I will start with Cameron Tringale (95/1), who even against his baseline I have as a wager. He had quite the career resurgence in 2021 — although he didn’t win, he was a factor in a handful and finished with the most T20s of his career, which dates back to 2010. His 2022 campaign hasn’t been as consistent as last year but he’s approaching the same number of top-20s and has the same amount of top-fives already (2). His driving at times has been horrid, but most often it’s serviceable which is all he will hopefully need to be competitive this week. Approach play is his best skill, a common theme this week (and many others), which is key, but it is a tall order to tip a golfer who’s never won on Tour (12 years). I bring that up because it’s a common theme and I think when you’re betting further down the board a golfer’s “closing mentality” isn’t something you should be overly concerned about. There have been a nice group of golfers who “don’t win” that win every season, including this year (List, Gooch, Straka, Hoge to name a few).
The last outright for the week is going to be on Troy Merritt 110/1. The odds just don’t quite line up for me and I think he deserves to be lower in this field. Similar to Munoz a few weeks ago (shame he couldn’t close), Merritt has been playing fairly consistent golf, having even flashed a few upside tournaments at Valero and RBC Heritage. He is a complete mixed bag of what you might get any given week, but he can get streaky with the irons and putter, which is what he will need to get himself into the mix. It’s a tall order but at 110/1, we’re getting a solid number that shouldn’t be passed up.
