Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Betting possibilities are endless in PGA, but my focus is on outrights. The theory here is that outrights, being low probability events, are harder for books to price efficiently. Additionally, I believe my focus on course fit can lead to large edges in the outright market, where books are under-adjusting odds. Whether your interest is in the outright market, top 10/20 market, matchups, or all of the above, my expected strokes gained projections can be your best friend. You can also heavily reference Kyle’s PGA betting Model and Josh’s projections.
Course Fit Model
First, a brief summary of the Course Fit Model for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship:
“Every week, there’s a mad dash across the industry to try to figure out who best fits the course – you’ll hear everything from course history citations to quotes like “It’s a bomber’s paradise.” But what if we could actually mathematically measure which players are the best fits? We can.”
In other words, there’s no need for speculation of which skills will translate into success at a given course when we can measure it directly.
Unfortunately, this week’s course fit model is weak and unreliable. It points, surprisingly, to distance, short game, and putting as the only three predictive skills, but the predictive power is a fraction of its typical strength. In my course fit article for FTN Daily, I discussed how this is enough to create a potential DFS edge since the field will care more about driving accuracy and iron play, but when betting, we need to be right, not just directionally correct.
Consequently, I’ll be sitting out this week in the betting world, but if you have some strong leans, by all means, fire away.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
You can tell it’s a weak field based on the favorite being 14-1. The uncertainty is likely to lead to some wide ranges of outright odds between sportsbooks. Even the favorites get in on the odds shopping action this week.
Odds Shopping
As is always the case, the low hanging fruit of the PGA betting world is odds shopping through the use of our prop shop. The differences in odds from one book to the next are often larger in PGA than you’ll ever see in leagues like the NBA or NFL. Simply shopping for the best odds can turn a losing bettor into a profitable bettor in PGA. This week, the largest, or at least most important, discrepancies I’ve found are:
- Denny McCarthy (18-1 at Caesars, as low as 14-1 elsewhere)
- Thomas Detry (25-1 at Caesars, as low as 18-1 elsewhere)
- Seamus Power (25-1 at DraftKIngs and Caesars, as low as 16-1 elsewhere)
If there’s this much separation at the top, you can guarantee there will be separation throughout. Use that prop shop.
