Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The PGA Tour is heading to the Monterrey Peninsula of California for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the last of the early season course rotation events. Two of the four rounds will take place at the historic Pebble Beach Golf Links, with Spyglass Hill and Monterrey Peninsula CC hosting a single round each across the first three days of the tournament.
We were blessed with no pro-am last year, but the celebrities have returned this year, which is why this event is back to a three-course rotation instead of using only two courses like they did in 2021. Depending on the weather, the hardest course of the three rotates between Pebble Beach and Spy Glass, with Monterrey habitually playing the easiest of the three. Keep this in mind as we get closer to the tee off and checking the weather for wave splits. Spy Glass, although difficult, is more protected from the wind and if a particular day stands out as gusty, it may be advantageous to avoid golfers playing Pebble Beach that day. We have seen weather cause many issues here on and off and it can be hard to predict and even cause delays which throw off what we may have thought would play out. It is still highly advised to check the forecast Wednesday evening to potentially catch any advantage in matchups or other betting markets.
Monterrey Peninsula CC
Par 71, 6,958 yards|
Driving Distance | 299 yards
Driving Accuracy | 72%
Greens in Regulation (GIR) | 75%
Spy Glass Hill
Par 72, 7,035 yards
Driving Distance | 285 yards
Driving Accuracy | 64%
Greens in Regulation (GIR) | 63%
Pebble Beach
Par 72 – 6,816 yards
Driving Distance | 281 yards
Driving Accuracy | 71%
Greens in Regulation (GIR) | 66%
As usual with the course rotations, strokes gained data is only available at one course and that has always been Pebble Beach for this tournament. It is one of the shortest courses the tour will travel to all season, and with that, one of the shortest averaging driving distances as well. With how the course is set up, much of the field will club down on the tee as many as eight times during their round. So, despite the act the course is so short, it is not only wedges being hit from the fairway. Fairways are not difficult to find but the tiny greens can be, boasting some of the smallest putting surfaces on tour.
In general, Pebble Beach does not provide a large advantage OTT, which is often a skill that best golfers in the world excel at, especially eliminating the edge gained from distance. Even accuracy can be overstated here but in historical numbers, the rough has been some of the least penal on tour, compared to shots coming from the fairway on the same course.
When it comes to approaching the green, about 50% have come inside of 150 yards, and the other 50% outside. Pebble Beach does have one of the highest rates of approaches coming from 125 to 150 yards, but overall golfers will see a healthy mix of approach distances.
Missing the greens is perhaps the largest penalty on the course, with Pebble Beach having one of the higher scoring differences, relative to par, missing a GIR.
The closer a golfer gets to the hole, the more important it will be to play better than the field, assuming they’re around field average for GIR. Approach play is key every week but what a golfer does when he misses normally has a larger affect on the outcome at Pebble than other courses.
Below are two free picks for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. For all of my picks, check out the Bet Tracker. If you’re not yet a subscriber, use code AXIS for 20% off and join us today. I look forward to chatting with you in the subscriber Discord.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Preview
Here are some of my favorite bets for this week’s event.
Matchup | Brian Harman over Chez Reavie
-125, DraftKings Sportsbook
This matchup may seem to favor Reavie a bit on a course history/fit side of things, but that is only a portion of what goes into predicting a golfer’s finish/expected strokes gained for a tournament. Quite frankly, neither golfer has played well of late, but as you scale back it’s quite clear Harman has been the consistently better golfer. Reavie has the edge with his irons and that’s where it ends for him and as much as people like to downplay putting due to its volatility any given week, long term shows a solid picture of how a golfer should perform. Harman has built a career on so-so ball striking paired with an excellent short game. We are picking one bad apple versus another, but recent form carries only so much weight and even if you prefer to weigh it more heavily, I still believe Harman has the slight leg up.
Matchup | Denny McCarthy over Matt Kuchar
+100, DraftKings Sportsbook
This is a matchup where I think some context is needed when looking at some long-term data. McCarthy has habitually had to rely on stellar putting to excel but he may have finally turned a corner with his ball striking. He is still not a long hitter however that will not be as important this week, especially at Pebble Beach. The approach play and overall strokes gained OTT have been at least average to above for McCarthy since the new season began and his outstanding short game has persisted. Now we come to Kuchar, who may have found new energy in the swing season as well, but not to the same level as McCarthy. The aging appears to have hit Kuchar with drastic steps down in his ball striking from 2019. He has played this event consistently over the last five years, with no spectacular results to speak of. I’m not buying into his seventh place at the Sony Open and although I don’t think there is a gigantic gap between him and McCarthy, I believe the wrong golfer is favored here.
