Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Bryan is coming off a beautiful win with Max Homa at 48/1 just a week after nailing Adri Arnaus at 35/1. Let’s see if he can make it three weeks in a row with a winner!
Byron Nelson Betting Preview
A solid field will be gathering in McKinney, TX for this year’s AT&T Byron Nelson, which is being hosted at TPC Craig Ranch. This will be the second time hosting for Craig Ranch, with the winner last season being KH Lee at -25 and a field average of almost 2.5 strokes below par.
There is no reason to believe the course will be a tougher challenge this season, and most of the field must feel they have a chance to win.
The caveat to that is it’s springtime in Texas, and if the wind starts blowing obviously things will change. Jordan Spieth had this to say about the course prior to last year’s tournament –
Will Zalatoris had similar thoughts that he shared in his press conference last year, and he is quite familiar with the course prior to it being a stop on the PGA Tour.
TPC Craig Ranch (2021 Data)
- Par 72, 7,468 yards
- Driving Distance | 288 yards
- Driving Accuracy | 66.78%
- Greens in Regulation | 70.55%
Remember, we only have one year of data, but from that we saw Craig Ranch play similar to the average PGA Tour course. Nothing in particular stands out, and if the weather isn’t causing havoc, we can expect another low-scoring affair. Hitting greens and hitting putts will be the name of the game with no wind, and this always opens the door for a larger percentage of the field to be in play. I will be sticking with mostly the baseline of my overall model, with a slight downtick to ARG and giving that to putting, since golfers will have to be capitalizing on the chances in front of them to succeed this week.
The current forecast is showing some potential wind, which would change things slightly and my focus would turn much more to ball-striking, with the emphasis on strong iron play to deal with the conditions.
Bryson Nelson Outright Selections
- Hideki Matsuyama 35/1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Aaron Wise 65/1 (DraftKings)
- Keith Mitchell 75/1 (DraftKings)
- Sebastian Munoz 95/1 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Scottie Scheffler returns to golf for the first time since winning The Masters and leads the market around a consensus number of 9/1, followed by Justin Thomas (14), Dustin Johnson (22) and Jordan Spieth (22). In what seems to be a recent trend, the market has set a clear favorite, followed by a handful of other contenders before beginning to thin out. There are wonderful cases to be made for each of these golfers, but I didn’t see anything to grab until Hideki Mastuyama at 35/1.
We haven’t seen Matsuyama since The Masters, where he finished 14th, and prior to that he was withdrawing and battling an injury. Perhaps the extended time off allowed for more healing, but I can’t 100% say where he currently is at (although keep your eyes on Japanese media, they are often good at asking him about this). The good news is his play at The Masters was indicative of what we’ve come to expect from him; superb play tee to green, with lapses in his putting. The putting is a concern if the course plays as easy as last year, but it wasn’t enough to deter me from taking the 35. His tee to green game is not rivaled by many in this field, and while the putting may keep him from winning, he’s won enough throughout his career to warrant backing. Nothing about Craig Ranch seemed difficult last year, and perhaps the easier to read/putt on greens will help this deficiency of his game. Whatever the case ends up being, I couldn’t pass on 35 when I made him in the low 20’s.
I was hoping to see a larger number on Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren, but instead Aaron Wise 65/1 is the golfer who shows value. I backed him at the Mexico Open (T6), and I think Craig Ranch is another solid fit to his game, although there is more competition this week. His irons flourished, while the rest of his game was stuck in neutral when I was hoping for more gains OTT than field average. I would expect his ball-striker to suit this week, and while his short game isn’t anything to brag about, it is sufficient enough at times to earn a trophy at the end of a week. There may be a bit more importance on driving at Craig Ranch, but with the limited data it could be similar to the CJ Cup played at the Summit Club, an event where Wise finished T5 and played well across all four strokes gained categories. I’ll admit that could be a stretch, and a small sample of data could be leading to a comparison that doesn’t exist, but it did stand out. I did not factor that into my number, but I made Wise 41 based on everything else and was happy to take the 65 being offered.
Just down the market from Wise is Keith Mitchell 75/1, which I felt compelled to take due to the number I made, but I did not anticipate him being a bet. His irons were fine last week, but he was horrible OTT, which is rare for him, and I have to imagine not finding enough fairways when the field is playing lift-clean-place was detrimental at a course we already expected to have difficult rough. It was the first event since last June in which Mitchell lost strokes OTT, which makes it a bit easier to not dwell on and focus on the overall strength of his driving. From the fairway to pin, he can be inconsistent but not often bad, quite simply not often stringing together good weeks with his irons and putting. He has a solid resume of finishes in 2022 despite not truly contending since last fall. At 75/1, the expectation of winning is small to begin with, and even at my number of 52, that is only a win probability of 1.9%. It’s a stretch, but they always are at this range in which we’re hoping to turn small edges to gains over an extended period of time.
My final selection, like the last two, doesn’t seem like a true threat to win. However, the number doesn’t match his play. Sebastian Munoz (95/1) comes into this event having made seven straight cuts yet doesn’t have a T20 to show for it. So, while his recent form is nothing to brag about, he also isn’t playing poorly. It’s simply too pedestrian to have achieved a top result. Both recently and longer term, he’s has been one of the better golfers in this field, tee to green, largely due to his ball-striking, which we know by now holds form more than short game. Although not overly predictive on its own, the combination of his metrics is promising, and I think a number closer to 60 would have been more appropriate for Munoz. It feels like a lifetime ago since his lone victory came at the 2020 Sanderson Farms, but his play has been about the same since, occasionally flirting with the top of the leaderboard. Hopefully we can catch fire in a bottle once again with Munoz.
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