NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/3)
Alex Christenson
The PGA Tour has ended its 2024 campaign but will finish things up with one final hit-and-giggle before the holiday season.
It’s Tiger’s event in the Bahamas, the Hero World Challenge. This tournament features a limited field of just 20 golfers, primarily plucked from the top of the OWGR board. Ironically, they are the ones that need those points the least, but this event will hand out OWGR points nonetheless, despite the tiny field and offseason vibes.
Let’s take a quick look at the course to see what stands out.
Course Fit
Albany is the host venue this week, an Ernie Els-design situated in the Bahamas.
This AI-like creation of a course features five par 5s and stretches to 7,449 yards while playing as a par 72. It’s not a tough test by any means, barring extreme winds.
When you look at the last five editions, we see the field averages slightly better than 70 strokes per round (2-under RTP), which definitely puts it on the easy course side of the spectrum.
It’s exposed to the elements off the tee with a linksy desert theme. So when looking for course fit we can look for golfers who excel on other courses that are wide open off the tee.
As a coastal track in the Bahamas, you may be thinking paspalum for grass but instead we see wall-to-wall bermudagrass here. Performance on that turf is another split stat angle we can target this week.
Looking at the last two years of results, here are the names who show the biggest increase in performance when playing courses with similar splits (coastal, easy courses, exposed off the tee and bermudagrass), relative to their baseline.
- Justin Thomas
- Robert MacIntyre
- Jason Day
- Sepp Straka
- Brian Harman
These are the five names who show an increase of at least a quarter stroke per round over their baseline. Over the course of four rounds that is at least one shot better than usual.
Head over to the Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
We haven’t seen Scottie for months, but he’s priced as if he’s in midseason form. It hasn’t been a problem for him in the past at this event, but will that change now with a young kid at home?
Hero World Challenge Free Golf Bets
Robert MacIntyre Top 10 Finish (+100)
Recent play is not a requirement but definitely a positive when heading into battle. For Bobby Mac, he’s played five events since October including a pair of starts in November.
If we’re betting on golfers to be in your ament shape, Mac is as good of bet as any. He showed up on the split stat list above to suggest that Albany could fit his game well.
Hit this price at DraftKings while you can as he sits between -135 and -200 across the other books.
Tom Kim to Win (18-1, one-fifth each-way for 4 places)
Kim has proven he has the “it factor” when it comes to winning golf tournaments. The 22-year-old has already hoisted three PGA Tour trophies including one this fall in Vegas.
If we look at his best performances, we notice that short courses really favor him. Or is it the easy scoring conditions of those events that has favored him? His three wins have come at 24-under, 20-under and 20-under.
Lastly while he’s not been as active as MacIntyre in the fall, he does have four starts since the TOUR Championship plus the Presidents Cup.
When adjusting for other golfers rust and recent form I have his fair top-four odds just over 30% while the each-way portion of this bet sits at 22%.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
