PGA Outrights and Best Bets for the 2025 RBC Heritage

After one of the most exciting golf tournaments of my lifetime, it’s time to reset and get right back into PGA analysis mode for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. 

Every year we see people trying to handicap the aspect of fatigue or Masters hangover, but Scottie Scheffler won last year’s Heritage directly off a win at the Masters. The year prior, Matt Fitzpatrick slipped on the tartan jacket just days after twirling a top 10 at the Masters. If you’re trying to project mental fatigue, good luck. 

Course Fit

Harbour Town Golf Link is a par 71 that plays at roughly 7,200 yards. You might shade it toward the short-course bucket but there is more to the story. Let’s dive in. 

Off the tee, this is a unique test as golfers see tree-lined corridors with massive overhanging branches. On some of the holes, it gets to the point where you can land your ball in the fairway but still have to hook it around a tree if you want to land the green. Because of this design, it plays as a less-than-driver course where golfers have to holster the driver more than most Tour stops. 

If a golfer has experience or comfort playing heavily treelined tracks, that is certainly a positive around here. 

So, going back to the short course versus long course debate now. For my “short course” list I need the course to put more wedges into the hands of golfers and that’s just not the case here at Harbour Town. Almost 30% of approach shots come from a small approach bucket of 175 yards to 200 yards. That’s a dramatic increase from the Tour average, which is around 19% from that approach bucket. 

When they are hitting those approach shots, they have tiny landing areas as Harbour Town features some of the smallest green complexes on Tour. That means less lag putting and more short scrambling opportunities. 

For grass, we go back to overseed with wall-to-wall ryegrass and poa triv this week. This is not uncommon as it’s basically what we see most weeks from January through April. 

Using those course details above, let’s search for a course fit based on split stat performance. For our split stat search let’s look at top-heavy finish history on less-than-driver, tree-lined tracks with overseeded greens. Here are the top 10 names that outperform their baseline rates over the last two years:

• Patrick Cantlay
• Bud Cauley
• Jacob Bridgeman
• Byeong Hun An
• Lucas Glover
• Justin Thomas
• Sungjae Im
• Robert MacIntyre
• Denny McCarthy
• Rickie Fowler

Looking at this list, you don’t see a heavy reliance on power. Most do their damage with steady iron play or a strong all-around game. 

Head over to the FTN PGA Split Stats page to see who the top performers are in these split stat categories.

Outright Odds

Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:

It’s easy to see why the books would do it, but I will point out yet again that Scheffler is being priced as if he’s still winning at his 2024 levels. While I agree he should be the betting favorite this week, there is no value at his inflated +360 price. 

With that in mind, what names stand out below Scheffler on the betting board? 

Free Golf Bets for the 2025 RBC Heritage

Robert MacIntyre Top 20 Finish (+150)

He let me down as a core play last week but he was very positive after his opening round. He felt like he played better than he scored. When the birdies didn’t drop early in Round 2, he pushed the envelope down the stretch and his final score reflects something much worse than he actually played. 

The result is a good bounceback spot for the Scot who ranks top 10 in this field when it comes to strokes gained accuracy. That is really the name of the game around Harbour Town. 

Bud Cauley to Win (75-1, one-fourth each way for 5 places)

Having a look at the FTN PGA Betting Model, we see Cauley with a 2.2% expected win rate while his current odds of +7500 would indicate a 1.3% expected win rate. Right off the bat we see value there. 

Then we look at the each-way portion of the bet and the FTN Betting Model has his expected top-five rate more than double what the top-five portion of this bet implies. 

Cauley is 20th in the field in strokes gained accuracy and just inside the top 20 in approach. Digging into his approach, his “weakness” on approach play comes from shots outside of 200 yards and Harbour Town dramatically under-indexes in those shots. 

Russell Henley to Win (22-1, one-fourth each way for 5 places)

Henley is just a few starts removed from winning at Bay Hill. So, I’m willing to forgive his missed cut from last week due to a poor opening round. He twirled one of the best scores in Round 2 but came up just short of making the cut because the damage had been done on day one. 

Now, he gets to Harbour Town where all of his strengths are emphasized. He’s as straight of a hitter as it comes and he’s 89th percentile on Tour when it comes to approach play from 150 to 200 yards. 

That is the recipe for a great rebound week for Henley. 

Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays throughout the week from myself and Alex Blickle. I already have a fourth play that I will load in there now.