Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Betting 101: What is Hedging Bets?
Hedging a bet is when you bet the opposite team or outcome of your original bet, to either limit your risk on a specific event/outcome, or guarantee yourself profit. To be able to hedge pregame (before the match begins), your initial bet must see significant market agreement and movement. Let’s say the Patriots are underdogs against the Dolphins, at +3 on the spread and +120 on the moneyline. You bet the Pats at +120 Tuesday, but the following day the Dolphins announce their QB is injured and the line flips to the Pats as a favorite. Now you can get the Dolphins at +3 on the spread and at +120 on the moneyline, while the Pats are -3 and -135. Since you already bet the Pats at +120, you can guarantee yourself a profit by coming back on the Dolphins at +120 moneyline. If you bet both at +120, you’re guaranteed to win one and keep the profit generated by betting the underdog at +120:
- $100 on Pats +120 to win $120
- $100 on Dolphins +120 to win +120
No matter who wins, you’re walking away with $20.
Now, this only makes sense if you bet big on the Patriots (unless a $20 profit is plenty for you) and want to lock in profit. If you don’t have an edge on the Dolphins at +3 (or +120), it makes sense to ride out your positive expected value (+EV) on your original Patriots wager at +120. You could potentially win both Pats moneyline and Dolphins +3, but again, it’s not wise to go against your initial +EV wager and try to thread the needle. You got the best of it with New England +3, now you just hope it hits.
How to Hedge a Bet
Hedging makes the most sense when betting on futures or a long shot and you’re able to lock in profit while keeping your +EV wager live. Let’s say before the NFL season you bet the Bengals at 20/1 to win the Super Bowl and Cincinnati is now a favorite in the AFC Championship game versus the Buffalo Bills. You have $100 on 20/1 (meaning $100 bet would return $2,100) pending to win on the Bengals. You can bet their opponent (the Bills) at +140 and guarantee yourself some profit if the Bengals stumble. You can bet just enough to lock in a profit, for example, if you bet $100 on the Bills at +140 and they win, you’re up $40 once you account for your losing Bengals 20/1 ticket:
- $100 Bengals Super Bowl to win $2,000
- $100 on Bills (to beat Bengals) +140 to win $140
You’ve locked in a $40 profit if the Bengals lose to the Bills. Now, let’s say the Bengals find a way to oust the Bills, your Bengals ticket is still live for a nice payday. Instead of profiting $2,000 on the Bengals winning the Super Bowl, you’re looking at $1,900 (after losing the $100 on the Bills). Which is still a nice payday on a $100 ticket.
Be sure to check out FTN’s Hedge Bet Calculator to help you determine the correct amount to hedge.
