Olympic Best Bets: Women’s 800-Meter Freestyle Swimming

It’s 2024, which means it is an Olympic year. Now that the Paris Olympics are underway, we will be putting together a series of articles focusing on some of the more niche markets taking place throughout the Summer Games. While sports such as basketball, golf and tennis are more common, there are markets such as track and field and swimming that I have found an interest in following due to edges that exist in the betting space. In the opening week of the Olympic Games, we’ll be focusing on swimming, while the second week we will turn to track and field. Today, we’ll be taking a look at the women’s 800-meter freestyle swimming race.

While the women’s 400-meter freestyle final was a three-women race, the 800-meter freestyle final will be a two-women race, between arguably the two best swimmers on the planet right now in Katie Ledecky and Ariarne Titmus. In Tokyo three years ago, it was Ledecky who took home the gold medal, edging out Titmus by just over one second. Notably, in 2021, Titmus had defeated Ledecky in the 400-meter freestyle final by just under seven-tenths of a second. Earlier this week, Titmus defeated Ledecky in the 400-meter freestyle final by 3.4 seconds. The concerning part for Ledecky was that rather than seeing Ledecky make up ground in the final 100 to 150 meters, it was actually Titmus extending her lead by a sizable margin. 

Now, with 400 more meters in play, Ledecky could absolutely pace herself to be in a better position to come from behind. In fact, it could be Titmus needing to come from behind, as Ledecky was leading the entire way in 2021. I do believe Titmus has more stamina and closing speed in 2024 than she did three years ago, and the separation in the 400-meter final is a strong tell. At their respective Olympic trials, Ledecky swam an 8:14:12 in the 800-meter freestyle, while Titmus swam an 8:14:06. So, the two were separated by six-hundredths of a second in their most recent heat. In 2024, Ledecky’s best time was 8:12:95, which came at the TYR Pro Series. Titmus’ best time in 2024 is 8:14:06 from the Australian Trials. I do expect Titmus to post a season best (and likely personal best, currently 8:13:59), given what we saw in the 400-meter freestyle final. While I still view Ledecky as the favorite in this race, I don’t think Titmus is deserving of a +400 number, and I’d make this closer to Titmus +150. 

Best Bet

Ariarne Titmus (AUS) To Win 800M Freestyle Gold Medal (+400, Bet365)