Olympic Best Bets: Women’s 200 Meter Freestyle (7/28)

It’s 2024, which means it is an Olympic year. Now that the Paris Olympics are underway, we will be putting together a series of articles focusing on some of the more niche markets taking place throughout the Olympic Games. While sports such as basketball, golf and tennis are more common, there are markets such as track and field and swimming that I have found an interest in following due to edges that exist in the betting space. In the opening week of the Olympic Games, we’ll be focusing on swimming, while the second week we will turn to track and field. Today, we’ll be taking a look at the Women’s 200 meter freestyle swimming race.

This is an interesting race, as it is shaping up to be a two-women competition between a pair of Aussies in Ariarne Titmus and Mollie O’Callaghan. O’Callaghan, the favorite to win the 100 meter freestyle, did not qualify for this event in Tokyo three years ago. Titmus is the reigning gold medalist winner from 2021, where she defeated Katie Ledecky, among others, and set an Olympic record with a time of 1:53:50. While Titmus owns the Olympic record, O’Callaghan set the world record at the 2023 World Championships with a time of 1:52:85. However, that world record was broken by Titmus at the Australian Trials last month with a time of 1:52:23. O’Callaghan finished right behind Titmus with a better time than her previous world record of 1:52:48. In their semifinal heat, swimming side by side, the two finished separated by just six one-hundreths of a second, with Titmus edging out O’Callaghan.

While this appears on paper to be a bit of a pick’em between the two Aussies, it’s tough to bet against Titmus in a gold medal race. Titmus has asserted herself as the next big superstar in the sport of aquatics. She’s impossible to chase down, and it’s difficult for anyone ahead to hold on to a lead when Titmus goes into that next gear down the stretch. I’m not saying Titmus has already reached peak Ledecky or Michael Phelps levels, but she’s trending toward that direction, and if you were to look back to 2008 and say “here’s Michael Phelps at –125” you wouldn’t be thinking twice. There is only one proper play in this race, and it is Titmus to collect her second gold medal of these summer games.

Best Bet

Ariarne Titmus (AUS) To Win 200M Freestyle Gold Medal (-125, Bet365)