Olympic Best Bets: Men’s and Women’s 100-Meter Track

It’s 2024, which means it is an Olympic year. Now that the Paris Olympics are underway, we will be putting together a series of articles focusing on some of the more niche markets taking place throughout the Olympic Games. While sports such as basketball, golf and tennis are more common, there are markets such as track and field and swimming that I have found an interest in following due to edges that exist in the betting space. In the opening week of the Olympic Games, we’ll be focusing on swimming, while the second week we will turn to track and field. Today, we’ll be taking a look at both the men’s and women’s 100-meter track races.

As much as I love Olympic swimming, track and field is easily the most exciting niche sport at the Olympics. As always, the track and field portion of the Olympic Games kicks off with the 100-meter sprint, determining the fastest man and woman on the planet. We’ll begin with the men’s race, which is an absolutely loaded field, headlined by defending World Champion Noah Lyles, as well as Kishane Thompson, Oblique Seville, 2022 World Champion Fred Kerley, Kenny Bednarek, Letsile Tebogo, Ferdinand Omanyala, 2021 Gold Medalist Lamon Marcell Jacobs, Ackeem Blake, Akani Simbine, Zharnel Hughes and Andre De Grasse. Since the final is run by the fastest eight, four of those 12 will be knocked out at some point prior to the final. When I say this is a loaded field, I mean this is a truly loaded field. Here is a look below at the current odds, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

It is no surprise to see Noah Lyles as the favorite. After all, he is the reigning World Champion and current World No. 1 in the 100M. However, it is Kishane Thompson carrying the World Lead of 9.77, done at the Jamaican trials in late June. Prior to June, Thompson had not run better than 9.85 in his career. He went under that number in all three heats at the Jamaican trials, then ran a 9.91 in his latest lead-in event in Hungary in early July. It is worth noting that he has not run against the likes of Lyles, Bednarek and Kerley, so better competition is a concern for the Jamaican. As far as Oblique Seville goes, Seville suffered injuries in the Jamaican trials final, but after working with Usain Bolt’s doctor Hans-Wilhelm Muller-Wohlfahrt, is reportedly 100% for these Olympic Games and — after defeating Noah Lyles in the 100M final in Kingston in early June — should be considered a serious threat to win the Gold Medal. Due to concerns surrounding those now healed injuries, Seville’s number has actually drifted from as low as +650 to +1400 over at ESPN. If Fred Kerley has solved his slow start off the blocks issue, the American certainly has an opportunity to medal at this event. Kerley just doesn’t have the ability to track down Lyles, Seville, etc., off a bad start. 

For me, I like Lyles to win the Gold here. He’s the best runner on the planet right now. He has a chance to complete the trifecta in the 100M, 200M and 4x100M. There is no better runner off the block in addition to closing. With a good start, Lyles is impossible to track down. Now, Seville has proven he is capable of beating Lyles. I did give out Seville as a play in late May at +1000, believing that number was too long. Now +1400 over at ESPN, I would consider taking a flier if you don’t have action at +1000. I additionally believe Seville to medal at +150 holds significant value, as I value Seville more than Thompson. 

Now, let’s take a look at the current odds for the women’s 100M race, as seen below, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

This is a little more straightforward, especially with reigning Olympic Gold Medalist Elaine Thompson-Herah out of the 2024 Olympic Games, as well as one of the favorites Shericka Jackson pulling out earlier this week to put a focus on the 200M event. 2021 Tokyo Silver Medalist Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce has also battled some injuries in the last year or so, putting together a limited 2024 schedule in which she has failed to crack 10.91. At the moment, it would be her worst season best since 2018, when she posted a 10.98 as her season best. 

With the three Jamaicans who swept the podium back in 2021 all either out or looking less than 100%, Sha’Carri Richardson has gone from the odds-on favorite to an incredibly strong odds-on favorite, now at -310. Personally, I viewed Richardson, the reigning World Champion as well as 2024 World Leader, as the clear-cut favorite here in Paris, with only a healthy Shericka Jackson as having a chance to dethrone the American. At -310, I can no longer play Richardson, but if you’ve subscribed throughout the spring and summer, you likely already have her somewhere between -105 and -170.

Lastly, I do find some value in the “To Medal” market, now that Jackson is out of the 100M event. While markets now reflect her absence, they haven’t quite fully settled to where I’d expect. Subscribers were able to get Melissa Jefferson to medal at +340 earlier this week, and she is now +185 over at FanDuel. Given Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce’s season best is 10.91, which puts her in a tie for 11th in the World Lead, it makes no sense to me that Pryce carries the third best odds to medal this event. Meanwhile, Jefferson, who is fourth in the World Lead (and third among those who qualified for this event) and ran below Pryce’s season best in all three U.S. Olympic trial heats, is getting 80 cents better to medal. The markets are simply respecting Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce far too much based on her past success, rather than her current form. 

Best Bets

• Noah Lyles to win Men’s 100M (+150, Bet365)
• Oblique Seville to win Men’s 100M (+1400, ESPN)
• Oblique Seville to Medal Men’s 100M (+150, DraftKings)
• Sha’Carri Richardson to win Women’s 100M (-275, Bet365)
• Melissa Jefferson to Medal Women’s 100M (+185, FanDuel)