Olympic Best Bets: Men’s 200-Meter Track

It’s 2024, which means it is an Olympic year. Now that the Paris Olympics are underway, we will be putting together a series of articles focusing on some of the more niche markets taking place throughout the Olympic Games. While sports such as basketball, golf and tennis are more common, there are markets such as track and field and swimming that I have found an interest in following due to edges that exist in the betting space. In the opening week of the Olympic Games, we’ll be focusing on swimming, while the second week we will turn to track and field. Today, we’ll be taking a look at the men’s 200-meter track race.

This has the makings of a thrilling Gold Medal race as Noah Lyles looks to complete the 100M/200M double. Lyles currently stands as a -600 favorite to win the gold in the 200-meter, and he’s rightfully the strong favorite. Since the 2021 Olympics, Lyles has collected gold medals in this race at the 2022 and 2023 World Championships as well as 2022 Diamond League. Lyles’ second and third gear is by far the best in the field, as evidenced in the final 50 meters of the 100M Gold Medal race, coming from behind to edge out the gold medal. Personally, I cannot envision someone other than Lyles coming away with the gold medal in this race, barring a disqualification, false start, or injury. In fact, based on what we saw at the US Olympic Trials, if Lyles runs the perfect race, in addition to favorable (but legal) wind, could set a new world record.

So, how do we bet this race if Lyles, the heavy favorite, comes away with the gold? Kenneth Bednarek and Letsile Tobogo are viewed as the favorites for the silver and bronze medals, and rightfully so. Bednarek pushed Lyles at the US Olympic Trials, running a 19.59, which is his personal best. Tobogo ran a 19.87 in his final tune-up last month but has run a season-best 19.71 in April. Erriyon Knighton, the first runner projected to fall off the podium, has a season best of 19.77 and a personal best of 19.49, which he ran back in 2022. Knighton is regarded as the best turn runner in track-and-field, which of course is a vital part of the 200 Meter race. Per the World Athletics database, Knighton is 1-0 H2H against Tebogo and 8-7 H2H against Bednarek. I think lane positioning will play a major factor in Knight’s chances, but as of this writing, we don’t know the potential final lane positioning. For me, with Knighton sitting at +160 (FanDuel) to medal in this race, I find value in the American to potentially give the Americans a podium sweep in the men’s 200-meter race.

Best Bets

• Erriyon Knighton To Medal Men’s 200M +160 (FanDuel Sportsbook)